Portsmouth vs Derby Predictions & Odds
Odds & model pick drop in here once bookmakers price this fixture, check back closer to kickoff.
Get the model's verified verdict on Portsmouth (and any team you follow) emailed the moment odds drop. Free, no spam, one-click unsubscribe.
A Championship meeting between Portsmouth (11th, 3 pts) and Derby (17th, 1 pts). Two sides with their own objectives and plenty to play for.
Portsmouth will be looking to make home advantage count (W0 D0 L1 at home). Derby's away record reads W0 D0 L1. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Portsmouth create chances worth 1.1 a game (and give up chances worth 1.4), leaving them -0.4 a game on the balance. Derby create 1.4 (giving up 1.4) for a balance of +0.1. On the quality of chances, Derby look the stronger side. they create more and give up less.
Goals look likely here. Portsmouth average 2.0 per game (1.0 at home) and Derby chip in with 1.5 (1.0 away). Defensively, Portsmouth concede 3.0 at home and Derby leak 2.0 on the road. We make it 67% for three or more goals. One of the stronger cases for goals today. There's a good chance both teams find the net, and we make it 68%. Portsmouth score in 72% of their games and Derby in 91%, and neither back line is tight enough to bank on a clean sheet. A word of caution on the chances: even though the goals numbers point up, the combined chance quality is only worth 2.5 a game. These sides aren't creating as much as their goal tallies suggest. Hot finishing has flattered the numbers.
Both teams score in 48% of Portsmouth's home games and 65% of Derby's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Derby travel here with relegation breathing down their neck. At 17th, they can't afford to drop many more points.
Portsmouth are all-out attack: 2.0 goals a game, but they leak 2.0 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Derby, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.
In the last 10 meetings: Portsmouth have won 1, Derby 3, with 6 draws. These fixtures average 2.5 goals per game. 5 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Both teams have scored in most of their recent meetings, so there's a good chance both find the net again. Recent results: Portsmouth 0-1 Derby, Derby 1-1 Portsmouth, Portsmouth 2-2 Derby.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Portsmouth Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Derby Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Portsmouth vs Derby kicks off on Tuesday 1 September 2026 at 19:45 in the Championship.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 68.4% probability.