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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester City Win | 44.5% | 51.3% | 7 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 48.8% | 54.1% | 5 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Tough night ahead for Notts County. Leicester City arrive as the bookies' favourite.
A League One fixture between Notts County and Leicester City. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Notts County will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Leicester City travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Marginal call: Leicester City at just 45%. With the draw at 28%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Leicester City, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Notts County average 1.3 goals per game and Leicester City manage 0.8. Combined that's just 2.1. We make it only 49% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 61% of Notts County's home games and 74% of Leicester City's away matches.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Notts County Win | @3.40 | 27.7% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.10 | 27.8% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Leicester City Win | @2.05 | 44.5% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.95 | 48.8% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.75 | 51.2% | William Hill |
Our model makes Leicester City the favourite with a 44.5% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Notts County @ 3.40, Draw @ 3.10, Leicester City @ 2.05. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Notts County vs Leicester City kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 12:30 in the League One.
Our top prediction is Leicester City to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.