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Three points on the line and a story to write. Burnley host Notts County.
Burnley take on Notts County in the EFL Cup. Let's break down what our data says about this one.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Burnley will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Notts County travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Burnley average 0.7 goals per game and Notts County manage 1.3. Combined that's just 2.0. We make it only 54% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 50%.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Burnley Win | @1.57 | 53.5% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.90 | 24.7% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Notts County Win | @5.00 | 21.8% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.67 | 49.9% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.10 | 50.1% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.70 | 53.7% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.20 | 46.3% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.20 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.33 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.62 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.45 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Burnley the favourite with a 53.5% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Burnley @ 1.57, Draw @ 3.90, Notts County @ 5.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Burnley vs Notts County kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 15:00 in the EFL Cup.