Who is favourite to win Norwich vs Burnley?

Our model rates Burnley as the favourite with a 44.4% win probability. The full 1X2 split: Norwich 28.3%, draw 25.3%, Burnley 44.4%.

Where can I watch Norwich vs Burnley?

Check official Championship broadcaster listings (Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Premier Sports, BBC, ITV) for live TV coverage. UK streaming details are confirmed by rights holders closer to kickoff.

How many goals are expected in Norwich vs Burnley?

Our model gives Over 2.5 goals a 58.2% probability and Under 2.5 goals 41.8%. The lean is towards a high-scoring game.

70% verified · 812 picks Championship Saturday 29 August 2026, 15:00

Norwich vs Burnley Predictions & Odds

N Norwich 28.3% @2.50

VS Draw 25.3%

B Burnley 44.4% @2.50

Our model call Leans Burnley, but only just A 44% call, draw at 25%.

★★★

Match result modelmarket

Norwich 28% 2.50 Draw 25% 3.30 Burnley 44% 2.50

Goals modelmarket

Under 2.5 42% 2.02 Over 2.5 58% 1.80 Over 1.5 @1.25

Both teams to score modelmarket

No 41% 2.15 Yes 59% 1.65

30+ rated markets on this game, every leg tracked in public Build this bet →

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03Model vs the market

Our Model vs The Market

Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.

Market	Our model	Bookies imply	Difference
Norwich Win	28.3%	40.0%	12 pts under
Both Teams to Score	59.3%	61.7%	2 pts under
Over 2.5 Goals	58.2%	56.2%	2 pts over

What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.

Key Stats

01The read

Norwich vs Burnley: Desperation Stakes at the Bottom

Norwich 28%, the draw 25%, Burnley 44%. That's the shape of this one.

Burnley slight edge (44%) | Predicted: 1-2 Confidence ★★★★★

Norwich (24th, 0 pts) host Burnley (19th, 1 pts) in the Championship. Both sides will be targeting three points here.

Our verdict

A razor-thin margin: Burnley at 44%, but the draw sits at 25%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.

Where's the value?

The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.

Key facts

📉

Home Wobble Norwich arrive off 2 straight defeats. The home crowd will need something early

⚽

Open Games Both teams score in 61% of Norwich's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet

🎯

Goals Lean We make it 58% for three or more goals in this one

▸ Form & goals

Norwich will be looking to make home advantage count (W0 D0 L1 at home). Burnley's away record reads W0 D0 L1. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them. Norwich's home form is particularly impressive right now. They're performing above their season average on their own turf.

xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.

Norwich create chances worth 1.4 a game (and give up chances worth 1.4), leaving them 0.0 a game on the balance. Burnley create 0.9 (giving up 2.0) for a balance of -1.1. The underlying numbers clearly favour Norwich. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones.

Norwich average 0.5 goals per game and Burnley manage 1.5. Combined that's just 2.0. Even so, we make it 58% for three or more. The model sees more goals here than the season averages suggest. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 59%. A word of caution on the chances: even though the goals numbers point up, the combined chance quality is only worth 2.3 a game. These sides aren't creating as much as their goal tallies suggest. Hot finishing has flattered the numbers.

Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 57% of Norwich's home games and 74% of Burnley's away matches.

▸ Team news & context

A genuine relegation six-pointer. Norwich (24th) and Burnley (19th) are both looking over their shoulders. This could define their entire season.

▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half

First Half Result

Norwich HT 3.00
Draw HT 2.20
Burnley HT 3.10

Team Intel

📊 Norwich · xG

For: 1.37/g Against: 1.37/g

📊 Burnley · xG

For: 0.88/g Against: 1.99/g

Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market

The complete price grid across all bookmakers.

Norwich vs Burnley Odds Comparison

Market	Selection	Odds	Probability	Bookmaker
Match Result	Norwich Win	@2.50	28.3%	William Hill
Match Result	Draw	@3.30	25.3%	William Hill
Match Result	Burnley Win	@2.50	44.4%	William Hill
BTTS	Yes	@1.65	59.3%	William Hill
BTTS	No	@2.15	40.7%	William Hill
Goals	Over 2.5	@1.80	58.2%	Bet365
Goals	Under 2.5	@2.02	41.8%	Bet365
Goals	Over 1.5	@1.25	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 1.5	@4.00	-	Bet365
Goals	Over 3.5	@3.20	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 3.5	@1.40	-	Bet365

05The numbers

Recent Form

Norwich

2L streak

Last 5 LLWLD

At home LWDW

Clean sheets 20% BTTS 61% FTS 20%

Burnley

3 unbeaten

Last 5 DDDLD

On the road LLL

Clean sheets 11% BTTS 58% FTS 37%

Norwich vs Burnley Team Stats

Norwich City FC

Position 24

Played 2

Record 0W-0D-2L

Goals F/A 1/5

Avg Goals Scored 0.50

Overall Form LLWLD

Home Form LWDW

Home Record 0W-0D-1L

Burnley FC

Position 19

Played 2

Record 0W-1D-1L

Goals F/A 3/5

Avg Goals Scored 1.50

Points 1

Overall Form DDDLD

Away Form LLL

Away Record 0W-0D-1L

Most Likely Scorelines

MOST LIKELY 1-2 9.1%

2-1 6.8%

2-2 6.8%

1-3 6.0%

2-3 4.5%

0-3 4.0%

3-1 3.4%

3-2 3.4%

Full Market Breakdown

Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Market singles 12 priced markets

Under 2.5 second half goals 85% @1.24 Betano
Over 0.5 second half goals 84% @1.22 William Hill
Burnley under 2 goals 83% @1.21 Marathon Bet
Over 1.5 goals 82% @1.28 Betano
Norwich under 2 goals 82% @1.22 Marathon Bet
Over 7.5 corners 81% @1.24 Betano
Norwich or Burnley (double chance) 80% @1.30 William Hill
Norwich over 0.5 goals 80% @1.28 Bet365
Burnley over 0.5 goals 80% @1.28 Bet365
Under 3.5 goals 75% @1.40 Betano
Over 0.5 first half goals 75% @1.40 Betano
Under 11.5 corners 74% @1.36 Betano

Build a slip from these markets →

Build your own bet

Our Norwich v Burnley builder

Our model's suggested selections (each one's a "leg"). Tap to build it, then place with your own bookmaker.

1 No Draw 76% @ 1.32
2 Over 1.5 Goals 75% @ 1.33

@1.76 £10 returns £17.64

View full breakdown

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The record

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verified hit rate across 812 graded picks, every one logged before kick-off.

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Norwich vs Burnley: FAQs

Who will win Norwich vs Burnley?

Our model makes Burnley the favourite with a 44.4% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.

What are the best odds for Norwich vs Burnley?

Best available odds: Norwich @ 2.50, Draw @ 3.30, Burnley @ 2.50. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.

What time does Norwich vs Burnley kick off?

Norwich vs Burnley kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 15:00 in the Championship.

Will both teams score in Norwich vs Burnley?

Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 59.3% probability.

Norwich vs Burnley prediction and betting tips?

Our top prediction is Burnley to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.