Match Stats
Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
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Over 8.5 Match Corners
50% (model)
Corners: NEC Nijmegen avg 7.8 for/2.2 against, Excelsior avg 1.7 for/5.7 against → expected 8.7 match corners
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Over 2.5 Match Cards
40% (model)
Cards: NEC Nijmegen avg 1.6/game, Excelsior avg 0.7/game → expected 2.3 match cards
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Over 24.5 Match Fouls
54% (model)
Fouls: NEC Nijmegen avg 12.8/game, Excelsior avg 12.3/game → expected 25.1 match fouls
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Over 26.5 Match Shots
82% (model)
Shots: NEC Nijmegen avg 21.3/game, Excelsior avg 10.5/game → expected 31.8 match shots
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
01The read
Momentum Swings: Excelsior Fancy Their Chances at Wobbly NEC Nijmegen
NEC Nijmegen 59%, the draw 20%, Excelsior 17%. That's the shape of this one.
NEC Nijmegen (3rd, 59 pts) are firmly in the top six and host a Excelsior side (13th, 38 pts) languishing in the bottom half. On paper, this looks comfortable.
Our pick
Tracking this league
Our PickNEC Nijmegen to win at @1.44. Model probability 59% vs implied 69%. The market is 10pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Key facts
🔥
Goals Expected
NEC Nijmegen score 2.4 per game at home and Excelsior concede 2.0 away. Goals look inevitable
⚖
Class Gap
Goal difference tells the story: NEC Nijmegen at +24 vs Excelsior at -13. A chasm in quality
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 86% of NEC Nijmegen's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet
▸ Form & goals
The travelling Excelsior fans arrive with a spring in their step, and rightly so. recent form reads D-L-W-W-D. That D-L-W-W-D away form is genuinely impressive. NEC Nijmegen have been wobbling (D-W-L-W-L) recent form reads D-W-L-W-L. But home crowds have a way of dragging a side through, and NEC Nijmegen will fancy that their own supporters can be the difference when it matters. Interestingly, NEC Nijmegen have been poor at home recently while Excelsior travel well. the visitors' away form is superior to the hosts' home record.
Goals look likely here. NEC Nijmegen average 2.3 per game (2.4 at home) and Excelsior chip in with 1.3 (1.4 away). Defensively, NEC Nijmegen concede 1.5 at home and Excelsior leak 2.0 on the road. We make it 67% for three or more goals. One of the stronger cases for goals today. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 53%. Their past meetings back this up. These two average 3.7 goals when they meet, with 7 of the last 9 producing three or more.
▸ Team news & context
NEC Nijmegen are all-out attack: 2.3 goals a game, but they leak 1.6 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Excelsior, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.
In the last 9 meetings: NEC Nijmegen have won 5, Excelsior 3, with 1 draw. These fixtures average 3.7 goals per game. 7 of the last 9 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Excelsior 0-2 NEC Nijmegen, NEC Nijmegen 5-0 Excelsior, Excelsior 0-3 NEC Nijmegen.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
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NEC Nijmegen HT
1.85
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Draw HT
2.63
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Excelsior HT
5.90
Latest News
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Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
NEC Nijmegen Win |
@1.44
|
59.4% |
888Sport |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@4.33
|
19.7% |
888Sport |
| Match Result |
Excelsior Win |
@5.50
|
17.1% |
888Sport |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.57
|
53.1% |
888Sport |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.40
|
46.9% |
888Sport |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.44
|
66.5% |
888Sport |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.75
|
33.5% |
888Sport |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.13
|
- |
888Sport |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@6.50
|
- |
888Sport |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@2.10
|
- |
888Sport |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.73
|
- |
888Sport |
05The numbers
NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior Team Stats
NEC Nijmegen
Position
3
Played
34
Record
16W-11D-7L
Goals F/A
77/53
Avg Goals Scored
2.30
Points
59
Overall Form
DWLWL
Home Form
DLWD
Home Record
9W-5D-3L
Excelsior
Position
13
Played
34
Record
10W-8D-16L
Goals F/A
43/56
Avg Goals Scored
1.30
Points
38
Overall Form
DLWWD
Away Form
DWWW
Away Record
5W-5D-7L
NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior Head to Head
5 Home Wins
1 Draws
3 Away Wins
3.7
Avg Goals
5/9
BTTS
7/9
Over 2.5
2026-04-04
NEC Nijmegen 2-0 Excelsior
2025-08-09
NEC Nijmegen 5-0 Excelsior
2024-05-06
NEC Nijmegen 3-0 Excelsior
2023-08-13
NEC Nijmegen 3-4 Excelsior
2023-02-19
NEC Nijmegen 3-0 Excelsior
2022-10-08
NEC Nijmegen 1-1 Excelsior
2021-04-09
NEC Nijmegen 1-2 Excelsior
2021-01-08
NEC Nijmegen 3-2 Excelsior
2019-12-06
NEC Nijmegen 1-2 Excelsior
Full NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior head-to-head history →
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
9.2%
3-1
6.0%
3-2
4.3%
3-0
4.1%
4-1
2.9%
4-2
2.1%
4-0
2.0%
5-1
1.1%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
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NEC Nijmegen under 3.5 goals
85%
@1.23
Marathon Bet
-
Over 1 second half goals
83%
@1.20
Marathon Bet
-
Over 0.5 first half goals
82%
@1.22
Marathon Bet
-
Under 4.5 goals
80%
@1.26
Marathon Bet
-
Under 2 first half goals
78%
@1.28
Marathon Bet
-
Excelsior under 1.5 goals
78%
@1.36
888Sport
-
Under 2.5 second half goals
77%
@1.33
Marathon Bet
-
NEC Nijmegen under 3 goals
75%
@1.33
Marathon Bet
-
Under 4 goals
73%
@1.37
Marathon Bet
-
NEC Nijmegen to win
72%
@1.44
888Sport
-
Over 2.5 goals
71%
@1.44
888Sport
-
Excelsior over 0.5 goals
71%
@1.48
Marathon Bet
Build a slip from these markets →