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A test of nerve as much as quality when Nashville SC welcome Inter Miami.
A MLS fixture between Nashville SC and Inter Miami. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Nashville SC will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Inter Miami travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Our PickBoth teams to score at @1.40. Model probability 68% vs implied 71%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Both sets of fans can dream here: this is two in-form sides on a collision course. Nashville SC come in on a D-L-W-W-W run, Inter Miami have gone D-W-W-W-W, and neither will fear the other. When form meets form like this, something has to give, and whichever way it breaks, it should be a proper occasion. Nashville SC's home form is particularly impressive right now. They're performing above their season average on their own turf. Inter Miami could be in for a similar cool-off. 2.5 goals a game against chance quality worth only 2.4. Hot finishing has been covering for the fact they aren't creating that much.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Nashville SC create chances worth 1.8 a game (and give up chances worth 1.7), leaving them +0.1 a game on the balance. Inter Miami create 2.4 (giving up 1.3) for a balance of +1.2. On the quality of chances, Inter Miami look the stronger side. they create more and give up less. Inter Miami are also scoring more than their chances suggest (2.5 goals vs chance quality of 2.4). Both runs could cool off at once.
Goals look likely here. Nashville SC average 1.6 per game (2.1 at home) and Inter Miami chip in with 2.5 (2.2 away). Defensively, Nashville SC concede 1.0 at home and Inter Miami leak 1.6 on the road. We make it 66% for three or more goals. One of the stronger cases for goals today. There's a good chance both teams find the net, and we make it 68%. Nashville SC score in 81% of their games and Inter Miami in 88%, and neither back line is tight enough to bank on a clean sheet. The chance-quality data backs the goals case. Nashville SC create chances worth 1.8 a game and Inter Miami 2.4. Combined, that's 4.2 a game from open play alone.
Inter Miami have goals in them (2.5 per game) but their record at the back (1.5 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Nashville SC Win | @2.05 | 42.1% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.90 | 22.1% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Inter Miami Win | @2.90 | 37.7% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.40 | 68.2% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.70 | 31.8% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.48 | 65.7% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.75 | 34.3% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.12 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @6.00 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.10 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.72 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Nashville SC the favourite with a 42.1% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Nashville SC @ 2.05, Draw @ 3.90, Inter Miami @ 2.90. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Nashville SC vs Inter Miami kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 01:30 in the MLS.