01The read
Monaco Host Gornik Zabrze: Our Prediction
Monaco 64%, the draw 22%, Gornik Zabrze 15%. That's the shape of this one.
Monaco have taken 7 points from their last five; Gornik Zabrze have taken 7 points from their last five. Form gives little away going into this Europa Conference League tie.
Our pick
Tracking this league
Our PickMonaco to win at @1.36. Model probability 64% vs implied 74%. The market is 10pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Key facts
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 67% of Monaco's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet
🎯
Goals Lean
We make it 64% for three or more goals in this one
▸ Form & goals
Goals are a tough one to call here. Monaco are scoring 1.8 a game (1.8 of those at home) and Gornik Zabrze manage 1.5 (1.5 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 64%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 50%.
▸ Team news & context
Monaco are all-out attack: 1.8 goals a game, but they leak 1.8 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Gornik Zabrze, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
-
Monaco HT
1.73
-
Draw HT
2.62
-
Gornik Zabrze HT
6.50
Latest News
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Team Intel
📊 Monaco · xG
For: 1.65/g
Against: 1.50/g
⚠️ Outscoring xG by 0.35/g, possibly running hot
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Monaco vs Gornik Zabrze Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Monaco Win |
@1.36
|
63.5% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@4.60
|
21.9% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Gornik Zabrze Win |
@7.00
|
14.6% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.75
|
49.9% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.00
|
50.1% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.53
|
63.9% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.55
|
36.1% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.17
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@5.25
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@2.25
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.63
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
8.1%
3-1
4.3%
3-2
3.6%
3-0
2.6%
4-1
1.7%
4-2
1.4%
4-0
1.0%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Over 2 goals
85%
@1.18
Marathon Bet
-
Under 4.5 goals
83%
@1.25
10Bet
-
Gornik Zabrze under 1.5 goals
83%
@1.26
Betano
-
Over 0.5 first half goals
82%
@1.30
Betano
-
Under 2 first half goals
82%
@1.22
Marathon Bet
-
Over 1 second half goals
81%
@1.23
Marathon Bet
-
Under 2.5 second half goals
80%
@1.34
Betano
-
Under 11.5 corners
79%
@1.26
Betano
-
Monaco under 3 goals
78%
@1.28
Marathon Bet
-
Monaco to win
75%
@1.42
Betano
-
Over 7.5 corners
75%
@1.33
Betano
-
Monaco over 1.5 goals
74%
@1.44
Betano
Build a slip from these markets →