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QPR know what's at stake, and so do Millwall.
QPR take on Millwall in the EFL Cup. Let's break down what our data says about this one.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. QPR will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Millwall travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
QPR create chances worth 1.3 a game (and give up chances worth 1.3), leaving them -0.1 a game on the balance. Millwall create 1.3 (giving up 1.4) for a balance of -0.1. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. QPR average 0.0 goals per game and Millwall manage 1.1. Combined that's just 1.1. We make it only 49% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 50%.
QPR do it the hard way: only 0.0 a game up top, but a mean 0.0 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break. Millwall prefer to keep things tight (0.8 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for QPR against this setup.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | QPR Win | @3.00 | 26.8% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.25 | 29.3% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Millwall Win | @2.25 | 43.8% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.75 | 49.9% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.00 | 50.1% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.90 | 49.0% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.90 | 51.0% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.28 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.50 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.25 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.33 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Millwall the favourite with a 43.8% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: QPR @ 3.00, Draw @ 3.25, Millwall @ 2.25. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
QPR vs Millwall kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 14:00 in the EFL Cup.