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Projected from club-season form, informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.
Projections from club-season form only, informational, never recorded or graded, and outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Maccabi Tel Aviv 49%, the draw 28%, FC Lugano 39%. That's the shape of this one.
Maccabi Tel Aviv have won three of their last five; FC Lugano are unbeaten in their last five. The visitors bring the sharper form into this Europa Conference League tie.
K. Behrens has been FC Lugano's main threat, with 6 goals and 1 assists in 5 appearances, averaging 1.80 shots on target per game.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Maccabi Tel Aviv are scoring 1.8 a game (1.8 of those at home) and FC Lugano manage 2.0 (4.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 53%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 52%.
Maccabi Tel Aviv are all-out attack: 1.8 goals a game, but they leak 1.3 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at FC Lugano, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. FC Lugano have goals in them (2.0 per game) but their record at the back (3.5 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Maccabi Tel Aviv Win | @2.30 | 48.9% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.25 | 28.1% | William Hill |
| Match Result | FC Lugano Win | @2.80 | 38.6% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.70 | 51.5% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.05 | 48.5% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.85 | 52.5% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.98 | 47.5% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.25 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.80 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.25 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.41 | - | Bet365 |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Limited recent meetings (1), too small a sample for a reliable head-to-head split.
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Our model makes Maccabi Tel Aviv the favourite with a 48.9% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Maccabi Tel Aviv @ 2.30, Draw @ 3.25, FC Lugano @ 2.80. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs FC Lugano kicks off on Thursday 27 August 2026 at 17:00 in the Europa Conference League.