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Tough night ahead for Gillingham. Luton arrive as the bookies' favourite.
Gillingham welcome Luton in the EFL Cup. We've crunched the numbers. Here's our preview.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Gillingham will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Luton travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Our PickLuton to win at @1.75. Model probability 56% vs implied 57%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Gillingham are scoring 1.0 a game (1.0 of those at home) and Luton manage 2.2 (2.2 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 53%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 48%.
Luton have goals in them (2.2 per game) but their record at the back (1.2 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Gillingham Win | @4.50 | 17.5% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.60 | 26.9% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Luton Win | @1.75 | 55.6% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.75 | 48.1% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.00 | 51.9% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.85 | 53.1% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.95 | 46.9% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.25 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.75 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.25 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.36 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Luton the favourite with a 55.6% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Gillingham @ 4.50, Draw @ 3.60, Luton @ 1.75. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Gillingham vs Luton kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 15:00 in the EFL Cup.