Key Stats
🔥
Houston Dynamo are on a 3-game winning streak
01The read
Neighbours Collide: Houston Dynamo and Los Angeles Galaxy Separated by Fine Margins
The model makes Houston Dynamo 52% favourites here. Los Angeles Galaxy carry the 23% upset.
A MLS clash between two sides separated by just 2 places in the table. Houston Dynamo (12th, 37 pts) and Los Angeles Galaxy (14th, 30 pts) both have plenty to play for.
Our pick
Tracking this league
Our PickThree or more goals at @1.60. Model probability 62% vs implied 63%. Priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Key facts
⚠
Home Struggles
Houston Dynamo have won just 5 of 17 at home. No fortress here, and visitors will fancy their chances
🚫
Poor Away Form
Los Angeles Galaxy have won just 0 of 17 on the road. Travelling support won't expect much
🔥
Hot Streak
Houston Dynamo have won 3 in a row. Momentum is real
🎯
Goals Lean
We make it 62% for three or more goals in this one
▸ Form & goals
Houston Dynamo will be looking to make home advantage count (W5 D3 L9 at home). Los Angeles Galaxy's away record reads W0 D7 L10. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them. Houston Dynamo's home form is particularly impressive right now. They're performing above their season average on their own turf.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Houston Dynamo create chances worth 1.4 a game (and give up chances worth 1.7), leaving them -0.3 a game on the balance. Los Angeles Galaxy create 1.5 (giving up 2.0) for a balance of -0.5. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Houston Dynamo are scoring 1.3 a game (1.2 of those at home) and Los Angeles Galaxy manage 1.4 (1.1 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 62%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 55%.
▸ Team news & context
Neither side has much to play for in the grand scheme. no European places within reach and relegation isn't a concern. That can make for an unpredictable game with less pressure on both sides.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
-
Houston Dynamo HT
2.15
-
Draw HT
2.40
-
Los Angeles Galaxy HT
4.20
Latest News
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Team Intel
📊 Houston Dynamo · xG
For: 1.38/g
Against: 1.70/g
📊 Los Angeles Galaxy · xG
For: 1.54/g
Against: 1.99/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Houston Dynamo vs Los Angeles Galaxy Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Houston Dynamo Win |
@1.67
|
52.2% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@4.00
|
22.7% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Los Angeles Galaxy Win |
@4.00
|
23.2% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.57
|
54.6% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.25
|
45.4% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.60
|
62.0% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.38
|
38.0% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.17
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@5.00
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@2.50
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.55
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Houston Dynamo vs Los Angeles Galaxy Team Stats
Houston Dynamo
Position
12
Played
34
Record
9W-10D-15L
Goals F/A
43/56
Avg Goals Scored
1.30
Points
37
Overall Form
WWWDD
Home Form
WDWWW
Home Record
5W-3D-9L
Los Angeles Galaxy
Position
14
Played
34
Record
7W-9D-18L
Goals F/A
46/66
Avg Goals Scored
1.40
Points
30
Away Record
0W-7D-10L
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
8.6%
3-1
4.6%
3-2
3.5%
3-0
3.1%
4-1
1.8%
4-2
1.4%
4-0
1.2%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Same-game fold one leg per market, live prices
-
Houston Dynamo or Los Angeles Galaxy (double chance)
84%
@1.25
Bet365
-
Houston Dynamo over 3.5 corners
Smart
84%
@1.21
Betano
-
Ezequiel Ponce 1+ shots on target
78%
@1.28
Bet365
-
Duncan McGuire 1+ shots on target
78%
@1.28
Bet365
-
Mateusz Bogusz 1+ shots on target
74%
@1.36
Bet365
Combined 3.37
· £5 returns
£16.85
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Houston Dynamo or Los Angeles Galaxy (double chance)
84%
@1.25
Bet365
-
Under 2 first half goals
84%
@1.20
Unibet
-
Houston Dynamo over 3.5 corners
84%
@1.21
Betano
-
Nickolas Markanich 2+ shots
83%
@1.20
Bet365
-
Over 7.5 corners
83%
@1.24
Betano
-
Houston Dynamo under 8.5 corners
83%
@1.21
Unibet
-
Los Angeles Galaxy over 2.5 corners
83%
@1.27
Unibet
-
Felipe Andrade 1+ shots
82%
@1.22
Bet365
-
Over 2 goals
82%
@1.22
Marathon Bet
-
Under 4 goals
81%
@1.28
Unibet
-
Over 0.5 first half goals
80%
@1.33
Betano
-
Under 2.5 second half goals
80%
@1.32
Betano
Build a slip from these markets →