01The read
CF Montreal vs Los Angeles Galaxy: Match Preview & Prediction
46% against 43%: the model can barely split CF Montreal and Los Angeles Galaxy.
The bookmakers open CF Montreal at @2.45 for this MLS tie, with Los Angeles Galaxy out at @2.60.
Our pick
Tracking this league
Our PickThree or more goals at @1.54. Model probability 62% vs implied 65%. Priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Key facts
⚠
Home Struggles
CF Montreal have won just 2 of 17 at home. No fortress here, and visitors will fancy their chances
🚫
Poor Away Form
Los Angeles Galaxy have won just 0 of 17 on the road. Travelling support won't expect much
🎯
Goals Lean
We make it 62% for three or more goals in this one
▸ Form & goals
CF Montreal will be looking to make home advantage count (W2 D6 L9 at home). Los Angeles Galaxy's away record reads W0 D7 L10. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them. CF Montreal's home form is particularly impressive right now. They're performing above their season average on their own turf.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
CF Montreal create chances worth 1.3 a game (and give up chances worth 1.5), leaving them -0.2 a game on the balance. Los Angeles Galaxy create 1.5 (giving up 2.0) for a balance of -0.5. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath.
CF Montreal average 1.0 goals per game and Los Angeles Galaxy manage 1.4. Combined that's just 2.4. Even so, we make it 62% for three or more. The model sees more goals here than the season averages suggest. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 58%.
▸ Team news & context
Neither defence inspires confidence. Both sides rarely keep clean sheets. Open, attacking football is on the cards.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
-
CF Montreal HT
2.85
-
Draw HT
2.40
-
Los Angeles Galaxy HT
3.05
Latest News
Loading latest news...
Team Intel
📊 CF Montreal · xG
For: 1.33/g
Against: 1.49/g
📊 Los Angeles Galaxy · xG
For: 1.54/g
Against: 1.99/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
CF Montreal vs Los Angeles Galaxy Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
CF Montreal Win |
@2.45
|
45.9% |
Unibet |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.60
|
23.4% |
Unibet |
| Match Result |
Los Angeles Galaxy Win |
@2.60
|
43.0% |
Unibet |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.45
|
57.6% |
Unibet |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.55
|
42.4% |
Unibet |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.54
|
61.7% |
Unibet |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.40
|
38.3% |
Unibet |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.15
|
- |
Unibet |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@5.10
|
- |
Unibet |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@2.38
|
- |
Unibet |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.55
|
- |
Unibet |
05The numbers
CF Montreal vs Los Angeles Galaxy Team Stats
CF Montreal
Played
34
Record
6W-10D-18L
Goals F/A
34/60
Avg Goals Scored
1.00
Overall Form
DLLDD
Home Form
DLDLD
Home Record
2W-6D-9L
Los Angeles Galaxy
Position
14
Played
34
Record
7W-9D-18L
Goals F/A
46/66
Avg Goals Scored
1.40
Points
30
Away Record
0W-7D-10L
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
8.0%
3-1
3.9%
3-2
3.1%
3-0
2.4%
4-1
1.4%
4-2
1.1%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
CF Montreal over 0.5 goals
85%
@1.18
Unibet
-
Over 7.5 corners
85%
@1.18
Unibet
-
Los Angeles Galaxy over 0.5 goals
84%
@1.19
Unibet
-
Los Angeles Galaxy under 2.5 goals
83%
@1.20
Unibet
-
Under 13.5 corners
83%
@1.20
Unibet
-
Under 4.5 goals
83%
@1.21
Unibet
-
CF Montreal under 2.5 goals
83%
@1.21
Unibet
-
CF Montreal under 7.5 corners
80%
@1.25
Unibet
-
Over 0.5 first half goals
79%
@1.26
Unibet
-
CF Montreal or Los Angeles Galaxy (double chance)
79%
@1.27
Unibet
-
CF Montreal over 3.5 corners
79%
@1.27
Unibet
-
Under 4 goals
78%
@1.28
Unibet
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