Get the model's verified verdict on Notts County (and any team you follow) emailed the moment odds drop. Free, no spam, one-click unsubscribe.
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester City Win | 44.5% | 51.3% | 7 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 50.7% | 54.1% | 3 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
A test of nerve as much as quality when Notts County welcome Leicester City.
Notts County take on Leicester City in the League One. Let's break down what our data says about this one.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Notts County will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Leicester City travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Marginal call: Leicester City at just 45%. With the draw at 28%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Leicester City, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Notts County average 1.0 goals per game and Leicester City manage 0.8. Combined that's just 1.8. We make it only 51% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 61% of Notts County's home games and 74% of Leicester City's away matches.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Notts County Win | @3.40 | 27.7% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.10 | 27.8% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Leicester City Win | @2.05 | 44.5% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.95 | 50.7% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.75 | 49.3% | William Hill |
Our model makes Leicester City the favourite with a 44.5% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Notts County @ 3.40, Draw @ 3.10, Leicester City @ 2.05. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Notts County vs Leicester City kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 12:30 in the League One.
Our top prediction is Leicester City to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.