Who is favourite to win Juventus vs Parma?

Our model rates Juventus as the favourite with a 71.4% win probability. The full 1X2 split: Juventus 71.4%, draw 16.0%, Parma 10.6%.

Where can I watch Juventus vs Parma?

Check official Serie A broadcaster listings (Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Premier Sports, BBC, ITV) for live TV coverage. UK streaming details are confirmed by rights holders closer to kickoff.

How many goals are expected in Juventus vs Parma?

Our model gives Over 2.5 goals a 46.2% probability and Under 2.5 goals 53.8%. The lean is towards a tighter, lower-scoring affair.

70% verified · 823 picks Serie A Saturday 29 August 2026, 19:45

Juventus vs Parma Predictions & Odds

J Juventus 71.4% @1.20

VS Draw 16.0%

P Parma 10.6% @15.00

Our model call Clear favourites: Juventus A 71% call, draw at 16%.

★★★

Match result modelmarket

Juventus 71% 1.20 Draw 16% 6.50 Parma 11% 15.00

Goals modelmarket

Under 2.5 54% 2.35 Over 2.5 46% 1.67 Over 1.5 @1.20

Both teams to score modelmarket

No 61% 1.57 Yes 39% 2.30

30+ rated markets on this game, every leg tracked in public Build this bet →

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03Model vs the market

Our Model vs The Market

Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.

Market	Our model	Bookies imply	Difference
Over 2.5 Goals	46.2%	62.1%	16 pts under
Juventus Win	71.4%	85.5%	14 pts under
Both Teams to Score	39.1%	43.9%	5 pts under

What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.

Match Stats

Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.

Over 9.5 Match Corners 43% (model) Corners: Juventus avg 5.7 for/4.4 against, Parma avg 2.4 for/5.8 against → expected 9.2 match corners
Over 2.5 Match Cards 50% (model) Cards: Juventus avg 2.3/game, Parma avg 0.4/game → expected 2.7 match cards
Over 20.5 Match Fouls 45% (model) Fouls: Juventus avg 11.7/game, Parma avg 8.4/game → expected 20.1 match fouls
Over 24.5 Match Shots 45% (model) Shots: Juventus avg 13.4/game, Parma avg 10.7/game → expected 24.1 match shots

Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.

Key Stats

🚨 Parma have failed to score in 42% of matches

01The read

Juventus vs Parma: Match Preview & Prediction

The model makes Juventus 71% favourites here. Parma carry the 11% upset.

Juventus to win (71%) | Predicted: 1-0 Confidence ★★★★★

Juventus (6th, 3 pts) are firmly in the top six and host a Parma side (16th, 0 pts) languishing in the bottom half. On paper, this looks comfortable.

Our verdict

This looks a strong one: Juventus at 71%. The evidence stacks up, and on the data Parma have little realistic path to three points here.

Our pick

Our PickJuventus to win at @1.20. Model probability 71% vs implied 83%. The market is 12pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.

Model71%

Market83%

Key facts

😶

Goal Shy Parma fail to score in 42% of their games. They go missing in front of goal far too often

📊

H2H Dominance Juventus have won 7 of the last 10 meetings. History firmly favours the hosts

🎯

Better Chances Juventus come out at +1.1 a game on chance quality vs Parma's -0.9. A clear gap underneath the results

▸ Form & goals

Interestingly, Juventus have been poor at home recently while Parma travel well. the visitors' away form is superior to the hosts' home record. Season-long, Juventus average 3.0 points per game compared to Parma's 0.0. that gap in consistency is hard to ignore. Interestingly, Juventus look better than their results show. The quality of chances they create is worth 1.9 a game, but they're only converting 1.0 goals. They're creating more than the scoreline shows and look due a few more goals. The gap in chance quality is clear: Juventus come out at +1.1 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -0.9. that's a real edge in the quality of chances. A concern for Parma: they're giving up chances worth 2.0 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.6 for the season). The defence is creaking.

xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.

Juventus create chances worth 1.9 a game (and give up chances worth 0.8), leaving them +1.1 a game on the balance. Parma create 0.7 (giving up 1.6) for a balance of -0.9. The underlying numbers clearly favour Juventus. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. Juventus should be scoring more. Their chances are worth 1.9 a game but they're only getting 1.0 goals. When the finishing clicks, they'll be a handful. Parma's defence is giving up chances. Worth 2.0 a game over their last 5 vs 1.6 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.

Juventus average 1.0 goals per game and Parma manage 0.7. Combined that's just 1.7. We make it 46% for three or more, so there's no strong lean on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 39%.

Both teams score in 47% of Juventus's home games and 32% of Parma's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed. Juventus keep the other side out in 42% of games and Parma fail to score 42% of the time. there's a real chance one side keeps it tight at the back.

▸ Team news & context

Juventus do it the hard way: only 1.0 a game up top, but a mean 0.7 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break. The chance data suggests Juventus will create openings. The chances they create are worth 1.9 a game and Parma give up chances worth 1.6 on the road. Expect Juventus to see plenty of the ball.

In the last 10 meetings: Juventus have won 7, Parma 1, with 2 draws. These fixtures average 3.3 goals per game. 7 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Parma 1-4 Juventus, Juventus 2-0 Parma, Parma 1-0 Juventus, Juventus 2-2 Parma.

▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half

Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (18%) and 2-0 (9%).

First Half Result

Juventus HT 1.60
Draw HT 2.62
Parma HT 11.00

Team Intel

📊 Juventus · xG

For: 1.89/g Against: 0.81/g

💎 Underscoring xG by 0.79/g, value possible

📊 Parma · xG

For: 0.69/g Against: 1.58/g

Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market

The complete price grid across all bookmakers.

Juventus vs Parma Odds Comparison

Market	Selection	Odds	Probability	Bookmaker
Match Result	Juventus Win	@1.20	71.4%	William Hill
Match Result	Draw	@6.50	16.0%	William Hill
Match Result	Parma Win	@15.00	10.6%	William Hill
BTTS	Yes	@2.30	39.1%	William Hill
BTTS	No	@1.57	60.9%	William Hill
Goals	Over 2.5	@1.67	46.2%	Bet365
Goals	Under 2.5	@2.35	53.8%	Bet365
Goals	Over 1.5	@1.20	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 1.5	@4.80	-	Bet365
Goals	Over 3.5	@2.62	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 3.5	@1.52	-	Bet365

05The numbers

Recent Form

Juventus

1W streak 2 unbeaten

Last 5 WDLWD

At home LDW

Clean sheets 42% BTTS 45% FTS 21%

Parma

1L streak

Last 5 LWLLL

On the road LLW

Clean sheets 34% BTTS 39% FTS 42%

Juventus vs Parma Team Stats

Juventus FC

Position 6

Played 1

Record 1W-0D-0L

Goals F/A 1/0

Avg Goals Scored 1.00

Points 3

Overall Form WDLWD

Home Form LDW

Home Record 0W-0D-0L

Parma Calcio 1913

Position 16

Played 1

Record 0W-0D-1L

Goals F/A 0/1

Avg Goals Scored 0.71

Overall Form LWLLL

Away Form LLW

Away Record 0W-0D-0L

Juventus vs Parma Head to Head

7 Home Wins 2 Draws 1 Away Wins

3.3 Avg Goals

6/10 BTTS

7/10 Over 2.5

2026-02-01 Juventus 4-1 Parma

2025-08-24 Juventus 2-0 Parma

2025-04-23 Juventus 0-1 Parma

2024-10-30 Juventus 2-2 Parma

2021-04-21 Juventus 3-1 Parma

2020-12-19 Juventus 4-0 Parma

2020-01-19 Juventus 2-1 Parma

2019-08-24 Juventus 1-0 Parma

2019-02-02 Juventus 3-3 Parma

2018-09-01 Juventus 2-1 Parma

Full Juventus vs Parma head-to-head history →

Most Likely Scorelines

MOST LIKELY 1-0 18.1%

2-0 9.0%

2-1 6.4%

3-0 3.0%

3-1 2.1%

Full Market Breakdown

Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Market singles 12 priced markets

Under 2 first half goals 85% @1.18 Marathon Bet
Juventus under 3.5 goals 83% @1.27 Marathon Bet
Under 4 goals 83% @1.21 Marathon Bet
Under 2.5 second half goals 82% @1.30 Betano
Juventus over 5.5 corners 81% @1.24 Unibet
Over 2 goals 79% @1.29 BetVictor
Over 8.5 corners 79% @1.26 Unibet
Under 13.5 corners 79% @1.26 Unibet
Juventus under 10.5 corners 79% @1.26 Unibet
Over 0.5 first half goals 78% @1.33 Betano
Parma over 1.5 corners 78% @1.28 Unibet
Juventus over 1.5 goals 77% @1.36 Betano

Build a slip from these markets →

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Our Juventus v Parma builder

Our model's suggested selections (each one's a "leg"). Tap to build it, then place with your own bookmaker.

1 Juventus 72% @ 1.40
2 Over 1.5 Goals 78% @ 1.28
3 Both Teams to Score - No 61% @ 1.64

@2.94 £10 returns £29.36

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The record

70%

verified hit rate across 823 graded picks, every one logged before kick-off.

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Juventus vs Parma: FAQs

Who will win Juventus vs Parma?

Our model makes Juventus the favourite with a 71.4% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.

What are the best odds for Juventus vs Parma?

Best available odds: Juventus @ 1.20, Draw @ 6.50, Parma @ 15.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.

What time does Juventus vs Parma kick off?

Juventus vs Parma kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 19:45 in the Serie A.

Will both teams score in Juventus vs Parma?

Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 39.1% probability.

Juventus vs Parma prediction and betting tips?

Our top prediction is Juventus to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.