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Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Three points on the line and a story to write. Palmeiras host Internacional.
Palmeiras (2nd, 76 pts) are firmly in the top six and host a Internacional side (16th, 44 pts) languishing in the bottom half. On paper, this looks comfortable.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Palmeiras will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Internacional travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Our PickPalmeiras to win at @1.60. Model probability 57% vs implied 63%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Palmeiras supporters have every reason to fancy this one. Their side is flying. recent form reads W-L-W-W-W. That W-L-W-W-W run is the kind of form you dream about heading into a game like this. It's been tougher going for Internacional lately (D-L-L-L-L), recent form reads D-L-L-L-L. but their fans know football rarely reads the script. One good start, one moment of quality, and Internacional are right back in it. On paper it's Palmeiras's to lose, and that pressure cuts both ways.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Palmeiras create chances worth 1.4 a game (and give up chances worth 1.2), leaving them +0.2 a game on the balance. Internacional create 1.2 (giving up 1.2) for a balance of 0.0. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Palmeiras are scoring 1.7 a game (1.8 of those at home) and Internacional manage 1.2 (0.9 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 50%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 43%.
Palmeiras do it the hard way: only 1.7 a game up top, but a mean 0.9 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Palmeiras Win | @1.60 | 56.5% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.60 | 24.4% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Internacional Win | @5.00 | 15.3% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.95 | 43.3% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @1.75 | 56.7% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.95 | 49.8% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.86 | 50.2% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.30 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.55 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.50 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.33 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Palmeiras the favourite with a 56.5% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Palmeiras @ 1.60, Draw @ 3.60, Internacional @ 5.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Palmeiras vs Internacional kicks off on Sunday 9 August 2026 at 20:00 in the Brasileirão Série A.