01The read
Heart of Midlothian vs ST Johnstone: Match Preview & Prediction
Heart of Midlothian 59%, the draw 20%, ST Johnstone 18%. That's the shape of this one.
Heart of Midlothian have taken 7 points from their last five; ST Johnstone have won three of their last five. Form gives little away going into this Scottish Premiership tie.
Our pick
Tracking this league
Our PickHeart of Midlothian to win at @1.67. Model probability 59% vs implied 60%. Priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Key facts
🏟
Home Fortress
Heart of Midlothian have won 15 of 19 at home (78%). They rarely slip up on their own patch
📊
H2H Dominance
Heart of Midlothian have won 10 of the last 10 meetings. History firmly favours the hosts
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 71% of Heart of Midlothian's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet
▸ Form & goals
Heart of Midlothian's home form is particularly impressive right now. They're performing above their season average on their own turf.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Heart of Midlothian are scoring 1.8 a game (1.9 of those at home) and ST Johnstone manage 1.5 (1.5 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 52%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 48%.
▸ Team news & context
Heart of Midlothian are in great shape right now, banging in 1.8 a game and only letting in 0.9. They're strong at both ends, so they tend to boss games and don't give much away at the back. ST Johnstone prefer to keep things tight (0.7 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for Heart of Midlothian against this setup. Both sides keep clean sheets regularly. This could be a tight, low-block affair where the first goal is decisive.
In the last 10 meetings: Heart of Midlothian have won 10, ST Johnstone 0, with 0 draws. These fixtures average 2.9 goals per game. 7 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Heart of Midlothian 2-1 ST Johnstone, ST Johnstone 1-2 Heart of Midlothian, Heart of Midlothian 2-1 ST Johnstone.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
-
Heart of Midlothian HT
2.25
-
Draw HT
2.30
-
ST Johnstone HT
4.50
Latest News
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Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Heart of Midlothian vs ST Johnstone Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Heart of Midlothian Win |
@1.67
|
58.6% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.60
|
19.6% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
ST Johnstone Win |
@4.80
|
18.2% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.75
|
48.1% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.00
|
51.9% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.80
|
52.0% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.02
|
48.0% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.25
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@4.00
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@3.00
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.40
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Heart of Midlothian vs ST Johnstone Team Stats
Heart of Midlothian
Position
1
Played
38
Record
24W-8D-6L
Goals F/A
67/34
Avg Goals Scored
1.80
Points
70
Overall Form
WLLWD
Home Form
WWW
Home Record
15W-4D-0L
ST Johnstone
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Heart of Midlothian vs ST Johnstone Head to Head
10 Home Wins
0 Draws
0 Away Wins
2.9
Avg Goals
6/10
BTTS
7/10
Over 2.5
2025-05-14
Heart Of Midlothian 2-1 ST Johnstone
2025-02-23
Heart Of Midlothian 2-1 ST Johnstone
2024-12-22
Heart Of Midlothian 2-1 ST Johnstone
2024-11-02
Heart Of Midlothian 2-1 ST Johnstone
2024-02-07
Heart Of Midlothian 1-0 ST Johnstone
2023-11-25
Heart Of Midlothian 1-0 ST Johnstone
2023-08-05
Heart Of Midlothian 2-0 ST Johnstone
2023-03-04
Heart Of Midlothian 3-0 ST Johnstone
2022-12-28
Heart Of Midlothian 3-2 ST Johnstone
2022-08-28
Heart Of Midlothian 3-2 ST Johnstone
Full Heart of Midlothian vs ST Johnstone head-to-head history →
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-0
10.8%
2-1
8.0%
2-0
6.7%
3-1
3.3%
3-0
2.8%
3-2
2.0%
4-1
1.0%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Same-game fold one leg per market, live prices
-
Over 1.5 goals
Smart
82%
@1.28
Betano
-
Claudio Braga 1+ shots on target
80%
@1.25
Bet365
-
Elton Kabangu 1+ shots on target
80%
@1.25
Bet365
-
Rogers Mato 1+ shots on target
80%
@1.25
Bet365
-
Sabri Guendouz 1+ shots on target
77%
@1.30
Bet365
Combined 3.25
· £5 returns
£16.25
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Joshua McPake 2+ shots
85%
@1.18
Bet365
-
Over 0.5 second half goals
84%
@1.22
10Bet
-
Heart of Midlothian or ST Johnstone (double chance)
83%
@1.25
William Hill
-
James Wilson 2+ shots
83%
@1.20
Bet365
-
Over 1.5 goals
82%
@1.28
Betano
-
ST Johnstone under 1.5 goals
82%
@1.30
Marathon Bet
-
Heart of Midlothian over 1 goals
82%
@1.26
Marathon Bet
-
Claudio Braga 1+ shots on target
80%
@1.25
Bet365
-
Elton Kabangu 1+ shots on target
80%
@1.25
Bet365
-
Heart of Midlothian under 2.5 goals
78%
@1.35
Betano
-
Over 0.5 first half goals
77%
@1.40
Betano
-
Under 2 second half goals
76%
@1.31
Marathon Bet
Build a slip from these markets →