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Guadalajara Chivas arrive on a 3-game winning run, yet the model still only gives them 44% here.
CF Pachuca are winless in their last five; Guadalajara Chivas have won three straight. The visitors bring the sharper form into this Liga MX tie.
Goals are a tough one to call here. CF Pachuca are scoring 1.1 a game (1.1 of those at home) and Guadalajara Chivas manage 1.4 (1.4 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 55%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 54%.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | CF Pachuca Win | @2.75 | 29.1% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.10 | 27.3% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Guadalajara Chivas Win | @2.25 | 43.5% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.62 | 54.2% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.10 | 45.8% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.95 | 54.5% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.07 | 45.5% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.28 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.10 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.25 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.40 | - | Bet365 |
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Combined 3.06 · £5 returns £15.30
Our model makes Guadalajara Chivas the favourite with a 43.5% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: CF Pachuca @ 2.75, Draw @ 3.10, Guadalajara Chivas @ 2.25. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 00:00 in the Liga MX.