Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07?

Our model rates FSV Mainz 05 as the favourite with a 52.9% win probability. The full 1X2 split: FSV Mainz 05 52.9%, draw 25.3%, SC Paderborn 07 21.8%.

Where can I watch FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07?

Check official Bundesliga broadcaster listings (Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Premier Sports, BBC, ITV) for live TV coverage. UK streaming details are confirmed by rights holders closer to kickoff.

How many goals are expected in FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07?

Our model gives Over 2.5 goals a 59.9% probability and Under 2.5 goals 40.1%. The lean is towards a high-scoring game.

70% verified · 810 picks Bundesliga Saturday 29 August 2026, 14:30

FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 Predictions & Odds

F FSV Mainz 05 52.9% @1.70

VS Draw 25.3%

S SC Paderborn 07 21.8% @4.50

Our model call Leans FSV Mainz 05, but only just A 53% call, draw at 25%.

★★★

Match result modelmarket

FSV Mainz 05 53% 1.70 Draw 25% 3.80 SC Paderborn 07 22% 4.50

Goals modelmarket

Under 2.5 40% 2.25 Over 2.5 60% 1.67 Over 1.5 @1.22

Both teams to score modelmarket

No 49% 2.15 Yes 51% 1.67

30+ rated markets on this game, every leg tracked in public Build this bet →

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03Model vs the market

Our Model vs The Market

Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.

Market	Our model	Bookies imply	Difference
Both Teams to Score	50.6%	60.6%	10 pts under
FSV Mainz 05 Win	52.9%	60.6%	8 pts under
Over 2.5 Goals	59.9%	60.6%	1 pts under

What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.

Key Stats

01The read

Neighbours Collide: FSV Mainz 05 and SC Paderborn 07 Separated by Fine Margins

FSV Mainz 05 53%, the draw 25%, SC Paderborn 07 22%. That's the shape of this one.

FSV Mainz 05 slight edge (53%) | Predicted: 2-1 Confidence ★★★★★

FSV Mainz 05 have taken 7 points from their last five; SC Paderborn 07 are unbeaten in their last six. The visitors bring the sharper form into this Bundesliga tie.

Our verdict

A razor-thin margin: FSV Mainz 05 at 53%, but the draw sits at 25%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.

Where's the value?

The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.

Key facts

📊

H2H Dominance FSV Mainz 05 have won 3 of the last 4 meetings. History firmly favours the hosts

⚽

Open Games Both teams score in 62% of FSV Mainz 05's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet

🎯

Goals Lean We make it 60% for three or more goals in this one

▸ Form & goals

Goals are a tough one to call here. FSV Mainz 05 are scoring 1.5 a game (1.5 of those at home) and SC Paderborn 07 manage 1.8 (1.8 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 60%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 51%. Their past meetings back this up. These two average 3.5 goals when they meet, with 3 of the last 4 producing three or more. Two or more goals at @1.22 is a steadier alternative for accas.

Both teams score in 59% of FSV Mainz 05's home games and 50% of SC Paderborn 07's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.

▸ Team news & context

SC Paderborn 07 are similarly well-balanced. 1.8 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. This has the makings of a tight, tactical game between two organised sides.

In the last 4 meetings: FSV Mainz 05 have won 3, SC Paderborn 07 0, with 1 draw. These fixtures average 3.5 goals per game. 3 of the last 4 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: FSV Mainz 05 2-0 SC Paderborn 07, SC Paderborn 07 1-2 FSV Mainz 05, FSV Mainz 05 5-0 SC Paderborn 07, SC Paderborn 07 2-2 FSV Mainz 05.

▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half

If you like FSV Mainz 05 but want a bit of cover, the Home/Draw double chance at @1.20 , which pays out if FSV Mainz 05 win or draw, covers 78% of the outcomes. Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (5%) and 3-1 (2%).

First Half Result

FSV Mainz 05 HT 2.15
Draw HT 2.30
SC Paderborn 07 HT 4.60

Team Intel

📊 FSV Mainz 05 · xG

For: 2.09/g Against: 1.40/g

💎 Underscoring xG by 0.39/g, value possible

Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market

The complete price grid across all bookmakers.

FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 Odds Comparison

Market	Selection	Odds	Probability	Bookmaker
Match Result	FSV Mainz 05 Win	@1.70	52.9%	William Hill
Match Result	Draw	@3.80	25.3%	William Hill
Match Result	SC Paderborn 07 Win	@4.50	21.8%	William Hill
BTTS	Yes	@1.67	50.6%	William Hill
BTTS	No	@2.15	49.4%	William Hill
Goals	Over 2.5	@1.67	59.9%	Bet365
Goals	Under 2.5	@2.25	40.1%	Bet365
Goals	Over 1.5	@1.22	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 1.5	@4.40	-	Bet365
Goals	Over 3.5	@2.75	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 3.5	@1.47	-	Bet365

05The numbers

Recent Form

FSV Mainz 05

1W streak

Last 5 WLWLD

At home LL

Clean sheets 12% BTTS 62% FTS 29%

SC Paderborn 07

6 unbeaten

Last 6 DWWWDW

Clean sheets 50% BTTS 50% FTS 17%

FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 Head to Head

3 Home Wins 1 Draws 0 Away Wins

3.5 Avg Goals

2/4 BTTS

3/4 Over 2.5

2020-02-29 FSV Mainz 05 2-0 SC Paderborn 07

2019-10-05 FSV Mainz 05 2-1 SC Paderborn 07

2015-01-31 FSV Mainz 05 5-0 SC Paderborn 07

2014-08-24 FSV Mainz 05 2-2 SC Paderborn 07

Full FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 head-to-head history →

Most Likely Scorelines

MOST LIKELY 2-1 5.4%

3-1 1.9%

3-2 1.9%

Full Market Breakdown

Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Market singles 12 priced markets

Over 1.5 goals 85% @1.24 Betano
Under 4 goals 85% @1.18 Marathon Bet
Under 2 first half goals 85% @1.18 Marathon Bet
FSV Mainz 05 or SC Paderborn 07 (double chance) 84% @1.27 1xBet
Under 13.5 corners 83% @1.20 Unibet
FSV Mainz 05 under 9.5 corners 83% @1.20 Unibet
FSV Mainz 05 over 1 goals 83% @1.21 Marathon Bet
Under 2.5 second half goals 82% @1.28 Betano
FSV Mainz 05 over 4.5 corners 80% @1.25 Unibet
Over 0.5 first half goals 78% @1.37 Betano
SC Paderborn 07 under 1.5 goals 77% @1.34 Betano
Over 8.5 corners 76% @1.32 Unibet

Build a slip from these markets →

Build your own bet

Our FSV Mainz 05 v SC Paderborn 07 builder

Our model's suggested selections (each one's a "leg"). Tap to build it, then place with your own bookmaker.

1 FSV Mainz 05 or Draw 82% @ 1.22
2 Over 1.5 Goals 78% @ 1.29

@1.57 £10 returns £15.74

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The record

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verified hit rate across 810 graded picks, every one logged before kick-off.

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FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07: FAQs

Who will win FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07?

Our model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite with a 52.9% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.

What are the best odds for FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07?

Best available odds: FSV Mainz 05 @ 1.70, Draw @ 3.80, SC Paderborn 07 @ 4.50. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.

What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?

FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 14:30 in the Bundesliga.

Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07?

Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 50.6% probability.

FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 prediction and betting tips?

Our top prediction is FSV Mainz 05 to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.