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Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
All eyes on Botafogo as Fluminense travel to face Botafogo.
A Brasileirão Série A clash between two sides separated by just 1 place in the table. Botafogo (6th, 63 pts) and Fluminense (5th, 64 pts) both have plenty to play for.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Botafogo will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Fluminense travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Botafogo will be looking to make home advantage count (W11 D5 L3 at home). Fluminense's away record reads W4 D6 L9. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Botafogo create chances worth 1.6 a game (and give up chances worth 1.3), leaving them +0.3 a game on the balance. Fluminense create 1.4 (giving up 0.8) for a balance of +0.6. On the quality of chances, Fluminense look the stronger side. they create more and give up less.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Botafogo are scoring 1.5 a game (2.1 of those at home) and Fluminense manage 1.3 (1.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 48%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 50%.
Both sides are in the chasing pack. Botafogo (6th) and Fluminense (5th) are still in touch with the playoff places, and a result here matters.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Botafogo Win | @2.50 | 46.9% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.00 | 26.8% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Fluminense Win | @2.75 | 39.6% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.73 | 50.2% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.00 | 49.8% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.95 | 48.3% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.88 | 51.7% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.30 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.66 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.40 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.33 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Botafogo the favourite with a 46.9% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Botafogo @ 2.50, Draw @ 3.00, Fluminense @ 2.75. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Botafogo vs Fluminense kicks off on Sunday 9 August 2026 at 01:00 in the Brasileirão Série A.