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All eyes on Flamengo as Vitoria travel to face Flamengo.
Flamengo (1st, 79 pts) are firmly in the top six and host a Vitoria side (15th, 45 pts) languishing in the bottom half. On paper, this looks comfortable.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Flamengo will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Vitoria travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Our PickFlamengo to win at @1.22. Model probability 69% vs implied 82%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Neither side arrives in vintage form. Flamengo have gone D-D-W-W-L, Vitoria's L-L-D-W-L reads much the same, but that's exactly the kind of game where one moment settles it and a whole fanbase goes home happy. Tight, tense, and there for the taking for whoever holds their nerve.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Flamengo create chances worth 2.2 a game (and give up chances worth 1.0), leaving them +1.1 a game on the balance. Vitoria create 1.2 (giving up 1.1) for a balance of +0.1. The underlying numbers clearly favour Flamengo. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Flamengo are scoring 2.1 a game (2.4 of those at home) and Vitoria manage 0.9 (0.7 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 61%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 51%. The chance-quality data backs the goals case. Flamengo create chances worth 2.2 a game and Vitoria 1.2. Combined, that's 3.3 a game from open play alone.
Flamengo are in great shape right now, banging in 2.1 a game and only letting in 0.7. They're strong at both ends, so they tend to boss games and don't give much away at the back.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Flamengo Win | @1.22 | 68.6% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @5.50 | 17.4% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Vitoria Win | @11.00 | 12.0% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @2.10 | 51.0% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @1.67 | 49.0% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.60 | 60.6% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.35 | 39.4% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.20 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.80 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.50 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.55 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Flamengo the favourite with a 68.6% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Flamengo @ 1.22, Draw @ 5.50, Vitoria @ 11.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Flamengo vs Vitoria kicks off on Sunday 9 August 2026 at 23:30 in the Brasileirão Série A.