Key Stats
🔥
Lech Poznan are on a 5-game winning streak
01The read
FC Thun Host Lech Poznan: Our Prediction
FC Thun 28%, the draw 27%, Lech Poznan 45%. That's the shape of this one.
FC Thun have lost three of their last five; Lech Poznan have won five straight. The visitors bring the sharper form into this Europa League tie.
Our pick
Tracking this league
Our PickBoth teams to score at @1.42. Model probability 68% vs implied 70%. Priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Key facts
🔥
Travelling Hot
Lech Poznan bring a 5-game winning run into this one
🎯
Goals Lean
We make it 65% for three or more goals in this one
▸ Form & goals
Goals look likely here. FC Thun average 2.2 per game (2.2 at home) and Lech Poznan chip in with 1.5 (2.0 away). Defensively, FC Thun concede 3.3 at home and Lech Poznan leak 1.0 on the road. We make it 65% for three or more goals. The numbers back it without being overwhelming. There's a good chance both teams find the net, and we make it 68%. FC Thun score in 67% of their games and Lech Poznan in 100%, and neither back line is tight enough to bank on a clean sheet. Two or more goals at @1.17 is a steadier alternative for accas.
▸ Team news & context
European nights carry a magic all of their own. The anthem, the spotlight, the occasion. Both sets of players will be desperate to deliver under the continental floodlights.
FC Thun are all-out attack: 2.2 goals a game, but they leak 3.3 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Lech Poznan, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
Most likely scorelines: 2-2 (7%) and 3-2 (6%).
First Half Result
-
FC Thun HT
3.25
-
Draw HT
2.40
-
Lech Poznan HT
2.85
Latest News
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Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
FC Thun vs Lech Poznan Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
FC Thun Win |
@2.90
|
28.4% |
Dafabet |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.68
|
26.8% |
1xBet |
| Match Result |
Lech Poznan Win |
@2.44
|
44.8% |
1xBet |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.42
|
67.8% |
Betano |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.88
|
32.2% |
Betano |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.53
|
64.7% |
Betano |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.55
|
35.3% |
Betano |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.17
|
- |
Betano |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@5.05
|
- |
Betano |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@2.32
|
- |
1xBet |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.67
|
- |
1xBet |
05The numbers
FC Thun vs Lech Poznan Team Stats
FC Thun
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Lech Poznan
Played
2
Record
1W-0D-1L
Goals F/A
3/6
Avg Goals Scored
1.50
Overall Form
WWWWW
Away Record
1W-0D-0L
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-2
6.6%
3-2
5.7%
2-1
5.4%
2-3
5.3%
1-2
5.1%
3-1
4.7%
3-3
4.6%
1-3
4.1%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
FC Thun under 2.5 goals
85%
@1.22
Betano
-
FC Thun over 0.5 goals
85%
@1.22
Betano
-
Under 4.5 goals
83%
@1.26
Betano
-
Under 2 first half goals
82%
@1.22
Marathon Bet
-
Over 1 second half goals
82%
@1.22
Marathon Bet
-
Lech Poznan under 2.5 goals
81%
@1.27
Betano
-
Over 0.5 first half goals
80%
@1.30
Betano
-
FC Thun or Lech Poznan (double chance)
79%
@1.31
1xBet
-
Under 2.5 second half goals
78%
@1.36
Betano
-
Lech Poznan over 1 goals
78%
@1.28
Marathon Bet
-
Under 4 goals
77%
@1.30
Marathon Bet
-
Both teams to score: Yes
71%
@1.42
Betano
Build a slip from these markets →