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Austin know what's at stake, and so do FC Dallas.
Neck and neck in the MLS standings. Austin (6th, 47 pts) host FC Dallas (7th, 44 pts) in a contest that promises intensity.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Austin will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while FC Dallas travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Our PickThree or more goals at @1.57. Model probability 61% vs implied 64%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Austin create chances worth 1.1 a game (and give up chances worth 1.9), leaving them -0.8 a game on the balance. FC Dallas create 1.4 (giving up 1.8) for a balance of -0.4. On the quality of chances, FC Dallas look the stronger side. they create more and give up less.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Austin are scoring 1.3 a game (1.3 of those at home) and FC Dallas manage 1.5 (1.5 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 61%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 57%. A word of caution on the chances: even though the goals numbers point up, the combined chance quality is only worth 2.4 a game. These sides aren't creating as much as their goal tallies suggest. Hot finishing has flattered the numbers.
Both sides are in the chasing pack. Austin (6th) and FC Dallas (7th) are still in touch with the playoff places, and a result here matters.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Austin Win | @2.70 | 28.8% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.75 | 23.4% | William Hill |
| Match Result | FC Dallas Win | @2.20 | 45.8% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.50 | 56.8% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.45 | 43.2% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.57 | 60.6% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.40 | 39.4% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.17 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @5.00 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.38 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.60 | - | Bet365 |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model makes FC Dallas the favourite with a 45.8% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Austin @ 2.70, Draw @ 3.75, FC Dallas @ 2.20. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Austin vs FC Dallas kicks off on Monday 17 August 2026 at 01:30 in the MLS.