Match Stats
Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
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Over 9.5 Match Corners
49% (model)
Corners: Excelsior avg 1.7 for/5.7 against, Sparta Rotterdam avg 4.6 for/7.2 against → expected 9.6 match corners
-
Over 2.5 Match Cards
50% (model)
Cards: Excelsior avg 0.7/game, Sparta Rotterdam avg 2.0/game → expected 2.7 match cards
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Over 24.5 Match Fouls
58% (model)
Fouls: Excelsior avg 12.3/game, Sparta Rotterdam avg 13.4/game → expected 25.7 match fouls
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Over 22.5 Match Shots
36% (model)
Shots: Excelsior avg 10.5/game, Sparta Rotterdam avg 10.5/game → expected 21.0 match shots
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
01The read
Excelsior Smell Blood as Sparta Rotterdam Arrive in Freefall
Excelsior 30%, the draw 25%, Sparta Rotterdam 43%. That's the shape of this one.
A Eredivisie clash between two sides separated by just 3 places in the table. Excelsior (13th, 38 pts) and Sparta Rotterdam (10th, 43 pts) both have plenty to play for.
Our pick
Tracking this league
Our PickThree or more goals at @1.60. Model probability 61% vs implied 63%. Priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Key facts
⚠
Home Struggles
Excelsior have won just 5 of 17 at home. No fortress here, and visitors will fancy their chances
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 71% of Sparta Rotterdam's matches this season
🎯
Goals Lean
We make it 61% for three or more goals in this one
▸ Form & goals
Excelsior supporters have every reason to fancy this one. Their side is flying. recent form reads D-L-W-W-D. That D-L-W-W-D run is the kind of form you dream about heading into a game like this. It's been tougher going for Sparta Rotterdam lately (D-W-L-L-L), recent form reads D-W-L-L-L. but their fans know football rarely reads the script. One good start, one moment of quality, and Sparta Rotterdam are right back in it. On paper it's Excelsior's to lose, and that pressure cuts both ways. Crucially, Excelsior are in strong home form while Sparta Rotterdam are struggling away from home. the venue factor amplifies the form gap.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Excelsior are scoring 1.3 a game (1.2 of those at home) and Sparta Rotterdam manage 1.2 (1.1 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 61%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 57%. Their past meetings back this up. These two average 3.6 goals when they meet, with 7 of the last 10 producing three or more.
▸ Team news & context
Neither side has much to play for in the grand scheme. no European places within reach and relegation isn't a concern. That can make for an unpredictable game with less pressure on both sides.
In the last 10 meetings: Excelsior have won 4, Sparta Rotterdam 5, with 1 draw. These fixtures average 3.6 goals per game. 7 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Both teams have scored in most of their recent meetings, so there's a good chance both find the net again. Recent results: Sparta Rotterdam 2-3 Excelsior, Excelsior 0-1 Sparta Rotterdam, Sparta Rotterdam 4-2 Excelsior.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
-
Excelsior HT
2.75
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Draw HT
2.45
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Sparta Rotterdam HT
2.90
Latest News
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Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Excelsior Win |
@2.38
|
30.2% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.50
|
24.6% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Sparta Rotterdam Win |
@2.60
|
43.2% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.50
|
57.2% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.45
|
42.8% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.60
|
61.0% |
Betano |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.46
|
39.0% |
Betano |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.19
|
- |
Betano |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@5.13
|
- |
Betano |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@2.42
|
- |
Betano |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.60
|
- |
Betano |
05The numbers
Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam Team Stats
Excelsior
Position
13
Played
34
Record
10W-8D-16L
Goals F/A
43/56
Avg Goals Scored
1.30
Points
38
Overall Form
DLWWD
Home Form
LDW
Home Record
5W-3D-9L
Sparta Rotterdam
Position
10
Played
34
Record
12W-7D-15L
Goals F/A
40/62
Avg Goals Scored
1.20
Points
43
Overall Form
DWLLL
Away Form
WLL
Away Record
6W-2D-9L
Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam Head to Head
4 Home Wins
1 Draws
5 Away Wins
3.6
Avg Goals
7/10
BTTS
7/10
Over 2.5
2026-05-17
Excelsior 3-2 Sparta Rotterdam
2025-09-14
Excelsior 0-1 Sparta Rotterdam
2024-02-17
Excelsior 2-4 Sparta Rotterdam
2023-10-01
Excelsior 2-1 Sparta Rotterdam
2023-03-05
Excelsior 1-4 Sparta Rotterdam
2023-01-14
Excelsior 0-1 Sparta Rotterdam
2021-07-31
Excelsior 0-3 Sparta Rotterdam
2018-01-21
Excelsior 3-2 Sparta Rotterdam
2017-10-21
Excelsior 1-1 Sparta Rotterdam
2017-04-07
Excelsior 3-2 Sparta Rotterdam
Full Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam head-to-head history →
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
8.8%
1-2
8.0%
2-2
6.2%
3-1
4.5%
1-3
3.7%
3-0
3.2%
3-2
3.2%
2-3
2.9%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Sparta Rotterdam over 0.5 goals
85%
@1.23
Pinnacle
-
Under 2 first half goals
84%
@1.19
Marathon Bet
-
Excelsior under 2.5 goals
83%
@1.24
Betano
-
Over 2 goals
83%
@1.21
Marathon Bet
-
Under 4 goals
81%
@1.23
Marathon Bet
-
Over 0.5 first half goals
81%
@1.33
Betano
-
Over 1 second half goals
81%
@1.24
Marathon Bet
-
Excelsior or Sparta Rotterdam (double chance)
80%
@1.29
William Hill
-
Under 2.5 second half goals
79%
@1.33
Betano
-
Sparta Rotterdam under 2 goals
78%
@1.28
Marathon Bet
-
Excelsior over 1 goals
75%
@1.33
Marathon Bet
-
Excelsior or Draw (double chance)
69%
@1.50
Betano
Build a slip from these markets →