Everton vs Manchester United Predictions & Odds
Odds & model pick drop in here once bookmakers price this fixture, check back closer to kickoff.
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Everton (3rd, 3 pts) are firmly in the top six and host a Manchester United side (17th, 0 pts) languishing in the bottom half. On paper, this looks comfortable.
Everton's home record this season is formidable. W1 D0 L0 from 1, scoring 2.0 goals per game at home. Manchester United, by contrast, have struggled on the road (W0 D0 L1 from 1 away). That imbalance is hard to ignore. Interestingly, Everton have been poor at home recently while Manchester United travel well. the visitors' away form is superior to the hosts' home record. Season-long, Everton average 3.0 points per game compared to Manchester United's 0.0. that gap in consistency is hard to ignore.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Everton create chances worth 1.3 a game (and give up chances worth 1.6), leaving them -0.3 a game on the balance. Manchester United create 1.6 (giving up 1.5) for a balance of +0.1. On the quality of chances, Manchester United look the stronger side. they create more and give up less.
Everton average 2.0 goals per game and Manchester United manage 1.7. Combined that's just 3.7. We make it only 35% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Both teams scoring is unlikely here (29%).
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 53% of Everton's home games and 74% of Manchester United's away matches.
The stakes are high for Everton at this stage of the season. Their fans will expect a performance, and the home support will be vocal in driving them on. Manchester United face a tough afternoon.
Manchester United travel here with relegation breathing down their neck. At 17th, they can't afford to drop many more points.
Everton are all-out attack: 2.0 goals a game, but they leak 1.9 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Manchester United, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.
In the last 10 meetings: Everton have won 1, Manchester United 7, with 2 draws. These fixtures average 2.8 goals per game. 6 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Everton 0-1 Manchester United, Manchester United 0-1 Everton, Manchester United 2-2 Everton, Everton 2-2 Manchester United.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (8%) and 1-0 (5%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Everton Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Manchester United Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Everton vs Manchester United kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 14:00 in the Premier League.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 28.8% probability.