West Ham vs Derby Predictions & Odds
Odds & model pick drop in here once bookmakers price this fixture, check back closer to kickoff.
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There's barely anything between these two. West Ham (17th, 1 pts) and Derby (17th, 1 pts) meet in a fixture that could shape the Championship table.
West Ham will be looking to make home advantage count (W0 D0 L1 at home). Derby's away record reads W0 D0 L1. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them. West Ham's home form is particularly impressive right now. They're performing above their season average on their own turf.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
West Ham create chances worth 1.2 a game (and give up chances worth 1.4), leaving them -0.2 a game on the balance. Derby create 1.4 (giving up 1.4) for a balance of +0.1. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath.
Goals are a tough one to call here. West Ham are scoring 1.5 a game (1.0 of those at home) and Derby manage 1.5 (1.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 65%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 58%. Their past meetings back this up. These two average 3.0 goals when they meet, with 2 of the last 3 producing three or more.
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 58% of West Ham's home games and 65% of Derby's away matches.
A genuine relegation six-pointer. West Ham (17th) and Derby (17th) are both looking over their shoulders. This could define their entire season.
In the last 3 meetings: West Ham have won 2, Derby 1, with 0 draws. These fixtures average 3.0 goals per game. 2 of the last 3 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Derby 0-2 West Ham, Derby 2-1 West Ham, West Ham 3-1 Derby.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | West Ham Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Derby Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
West Ham vs Derby kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 15:00 in the Championship.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 57.8% probability.