Stoke City vs Charlton Predictions & Odds
Odds & model pick drop in here once bookmakers price this fixture, check back closer to kickoff.
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Stoke City (17th, 0 pts) face the unenviable task of hosting in-form Charlton (3rd, 3 pts). The gap in quality should tell, but home advantage can be a great leveller.
Stoke City's home form is particularly impressive right now. They're performing above their season average on their own turf.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Stoke City create chances worth 1.5 a game (and give up chances worth 1.7), leaving them -0.2 a game on the balance. Charlton create 1.2 (giving up 1.6) for a balance of -0.4. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. A worry for Stoke City: the chances they're creating lately are worth 1.1 a game, well below their 1.5 season figure. The attacking output has dipped.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Stoke City are scoring 1.0 a game (1.0 of those at home) and Charlton manage 2.0 (2.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 54%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 46%.
Both teams score in 61% of Stoke City's home games and 57% of Charlton's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Stoke City need points desperately. Sitting 17th in the table, every match feels like a cup final now.
Charlton have goals in them (2.0 per game) but their record at the back (1.0 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
In the last 4 meetings: Stoke City have won 2, Charlton 2, with 0 draws. These fixtures average 3.0 goals per game. 3 of the last 4 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Charlton 1-0 Stoke City, Stoke City 3-0 Charlton, Stoke City 3-1 Charlton.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Stoke City Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Charlton Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Stoke City vs Charlton kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 12:30 in the Championship.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 46.0% probability.