Derby vs Bolton Prediction
Friday 6 November 2026, 20:00 Championship1235 picks graded in public, misses included. The record
The model's read
Derby 36%
Draw 25%
Bolton 39%
The read
The deskDerby have not won in five matches and are winless in their last five at home, while Bolton have managed two wins in their last five away. A home-or-draw bet looks tempting at a short price, but Derby's recent home form argues hard against it; goals at both ends look the steadier read here.
The model says
Always freeEvery call is logged before kick-off and graded in public. The whole record is on the track record, misses included.
One game passed the rule today. It is in Pro, seven days for £1
The research
ProDerby's home form is 0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses in their last 5 at Pride Park, haven't won in 5 anywhere. That is a non-loss rate of only 1 in 5 at home, directly against this bet landing.
“Derby's home form is dreadful, the home double chance is a trap, goals look likely.”
Every market graded strong, medium or killed, and the desk's own word on the model's call, with the reason written down. In FBB Pro, on this game and every other. Seven days for £1
18+. BeGambleAware.org
The model v the market
Always free| Match model | Best price | Implied | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby win | 36% | 2.20 | 45% |
| Draw | 25% | 3.50 | 29% |
| Bolton win | 39% | 3.00 | 33% |
| Derby or draw | 75% | 1.36 | 74% |
| Bolton or draw | 61% | 1.67 | 60% |
| Either side to win, no draw | 1.30 | 77% | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 1.73 | 58% |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 1.62 | 62% |
Best price across the books we track, the same price as the list below, where the book is named.
The singles' third check uses our goals model, a separate number.
Every priced market
16 marketsThe bookmakers' best prices on every market we track for this game, corners, cards and shots included. Prices are theirs, with their margin in; our own number appears only where the model has a graded record. Tap any to add it to your slip.
Recent form
Always freeDerby
LDLLDD
Last 6, newest first: 0 won, 3 drawn, 3 lost. 5 scored, 12 conceded.
at Millwall
1-4
Lost
at Sheffield United
1-1
Drew
v Stoke City
0-1
Lost
at Queens Park Rangers
1-4
Lost
v Wrexham
1-1
Drew
at Burnley
1-1
Drew
Bolton
LLDWLW
Last 6, newest first: 2 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost. 11 scored, 14 conceded.
v Bristol City
2-3
Lost
v Middlesbrough
1-5
Lost
at Southampton
0-0
Drew
at Wolverhampton Wanderers
3-1
Won
v Stoke City
1-2
Lost
at Norwich
4-3
Won
Each side's last finished games in all competitions, their goals first. At home reads v, away reads at.
Derby v Bolton: the numbers
Always freeDerbyBolton
23League position19
1-4-8League record, won-drawn-lost4-2-7
11-25Goals for and against18-26
7Points14
0-2-4Home record v away record2-2-2
0.85Scored a game1.38
1.92Conceded a game2.00
0.97xG for a game1.46
26%Clean sheets24%
9%Failed to score22%
65%Both teams scored63%
League record and goals from this season's table where the feed carries it; the rates are the share of each side's games in the data we hold.
Derby v Bolton: head to head
Always freeDerby v Bolton
1-0
Bolton v Derby
2-1
Derby v Bolton
2-1
Bolton v Derby
0-0
Derby v Bolton
4-0
Bolton v Derby
1-0
Derby v Bolton
3-0
Bolton v Derby
1-2
Derby v Bolton
4-1
Bolton v Derby
0-0
Likely scorelines
Always freeFrom each side's goals scored and conceded a game, the home side's goals first. Information, not a call.
Derby vs Bolton: FAQs
Always freeDerby vs Bolton prediction: what is the call?
The call on this game is Over 1.5 at 1.24. Every call is logged before kick-off and graded in public, misses included.
What time does Derby vs Bolton kick off?
Derby vs Bolton kicks off on Friday 6 November 2026 at 20:00 UK time (Championship).
What are the best odds for Derby vs Bolton?
The best prices across the books we track: Derby 2.20, the draw 3.50, Bolton 3.00. Prices move; the table on this page is the latest.
What form are Derby and Bolton in?
Derby have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 6 (L D L L D D, newest first), scoring 5 and conceding 12. Bolton have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 6 (L L D W L W, newest first), scoring 11 and conceding 14.
What is the head to head between Derby and Bolton?
In their last 10 meetings on our record, Derby won 6, Bolton won 2 and 2 were drawn. The most recent, 16 Mar 2024, finished Derby 1-0 Bolton.
Recent singles, graded
Graded in public-
Mon 2 Nov
Pro single
Sonderjyske v FC Copenhagen
1.53
Over 2.5 goals (0-2) Lost
-
Sun 1 Nov
Pro single
Groningen v Sparta Rotterdam
1.44
Over 2.5 goals (2-3) Landed
-
Sat 31 Oct
Pro single
Sampdoria v Virtus Entella
1.36
Over 1.5 goals (2-0) Landed
-
Sat 31 Oct
Pro single
Peterborough v Luton
1.41
Over 2.5 goals (0-2) Lost
-
Sat 31 Oct
Pro single
FC Augsburg v SC Freiburg
1.50
Over 2.5 goals (1-2) Landed
Every single is locked before kick-off, one unit each, and graded whatever happens.
The singles we'd pick ourselves, with the research and the price behind each one
- The daily singles. Each one cleared three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. Usually 0 to 5 a day, one unit each.
- The case for each, put together. The last 12 against what the price needs, who is missing, the head to head, and the best price at a UK bookmaker, in one place.
- The desk's card on every fixture it covers. Its verdict, every market graded, and the reason written down. And tomorrow's singles the night before.
Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.