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Curzon Ashton FC 58%, the draw 22%, Bradford (Park Avenue) AFC 19%. That's the shape of this one.
The bookmakers open Curzon Ashton FC at @1.55 for this FA Cup tie, with Bradford (Park Avenue) AFC out at @5.25.
Our PickCurzon Ashton FC to win at @1.55. Model probability 58% vs implied 65%. The market is 6pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Curzon Ashton FC Win | @1.55 | 58.3% | Ladbrokes |
| Match Result | Draw | @4.40 | 22.3% | Ladbrokes |
| Match Result | Bradford (Park Avenue) AFC Win | @5.25 | 19.4% | Ladbrokes |
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Our model makes Curzon Ashton FC the favourite with a 58.3% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Curzon Ashton FC @ 1.55, Draw @ 4.40, Bradford (Park Avenue) AFC @ 5.25. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Curzon Ashton FC vs Bradford (Park Avenue) AFC kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 13:00 in the FA Cup.