03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Over 2.5 Goals |
53.6% |
61.7% |
8 pts under
|
| Crystal Palace Win |
15.0% |
21.3% |
6 pts under
|
| Both Teams to Score |
54.9% |
60.6% |
6 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Match Stats
Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
-
Over 10.5 Match Corners
47% (model)
Corners: Crystal Palace avg 3.3 for/4.2 against, Manchester City avg 9.7 for/3.7 against → expected 10.4 match corners
-
Over 2.5 Match Cards
46% (model)
Cards: Crystal Palace avg 1.5/game, Manchester City avg 1.0/game → expected 2.5 match cards
-
Over 24.5 Match Fouls
45% (model)
Fouls: Crystal Palace avg 12.7/game, Manchester City avg 11.3/game → expected 24.0 match fouls
-
Over 26.5 Match Shots
59% (model)
Shots: Crystal Palace avg 12.3/game, Manchester City avg 15.5/game → expected 27.8 match shots
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
01The read
Crystal Palace vs Manchester City: Match Preview & Prediction
The model makes Manchester City 60% favourites here. Crystal Palace carry the 15% upset.
Manchester City slight edge (60%) | Predicted: 1-2
Confidence
★★★★★
A Premier League meeting between Crystal Palace (16th, 0 pts) and Manchester City (7th, 3 pts). Two sides with their own objectives and plenty to play for.
Our verdict
Manchester City shade it at 60%, though Crystal Palace won't be pushovers. If you're building an acca, backing Manchester City with your stake back if it's a draw is the safer option.
Our pick
Our PickManchester City to win at @1.62. Model probability 60% vs implied 62%. Priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
▸ Form & goals
Crucially, Crystal Palace are in strong home form while Manchester City are struggling away from home. the venue factor amplifies the form gap. Season-long, Manchester City average 3.0 points per game compared to Crystal Palace's 0.0. that gap in consistency is hard to ignore. Interestingly, Crystal Palace look better than their results show. The quality of chances they create is worth 1.5 a game, but they're only converting 1.1 goals. They're creating more than the scoreline shows and look due a few more goals. The gap in chance quality is clear: Manchester City come out at +0.8 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to +0.0. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Crystal Palace create chances worth 1.5 a game (and give up chances worth 1.5), leaving them 0.0 a game on the balance. Manchester City create 2.0 (giving up 1.3) for a balance of +0.8. On the quality of chances, Manchester City look the stronger side. they create more and give up less. Crystal Palace should be scoring more. Their chances are worth 1.5 a game but they're only getting 1.1 goals. When the finishing clicks, they'll be a handful.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Crystal Palace are scoring 1.1 a game (1.1 of those at home) and Manchester City manage 2.0 (2.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 54%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 55%. Two or more goals at @1.20 is a steadier alternative for accas.
Both teams score in 53% of Crystal Palace's home games and 53% of Manchester City's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
▸ Team news & context
Manchester City have goals in them (2.0 per game) but their record at the back (1.0 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
In the last 10 meetings: Crystal Palace have won 1, Manchester City 6, with 3 draws. These fixtures average 3.5 goals per game. 7 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Manchester City 3-0 Crystal Palace, Crystal Palace 0-3 Manchester City, Crystal Palace 1-0 Manchester City, Manchester City 5-2 Crystal Palace.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
Most likely scorelines: 1-2 (10%) and 0-1 (10%).
First Half Result
-
Crystal Palace HT
5.00
-
Draw HT
2.40
-
Manchester City HT
2.00
Latest News
Loading latest news...
Team Intel
📊 Crystal Palace · xG
For: 1.49/g
Against: 1.47/g
💎 Underscoring xG by 0.39/g, value possible
📊 Manchester City · xG
For: 2.02/g
Against: 1.26/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Crystal Palace vs Manchester City Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Crystal Palace Win |
@4.80
|
15.0% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@4.00
|
23.2% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Manchester City Win |
@1.62
|
59.8% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.67
|
54.9% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.15
|
45.1% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.67
|
53.6% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.28
|
46.4% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.20
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@4.50
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@2.62
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.52
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Crystal Palace vs Manchester City Team Stats
Crystal Palace FC
Position
16
Played
1
Record
0W-0D-1L
Goals F/A
0/2
Avg Goals Scored
1.09
Overall Form
LWLDL
Home Form
WLDWD
Home Record
0W-0D-0L
Manchester City FC
Position
7
Played
1
Record
1W-0D-0L
Goals F/A
2/1
Avg Goals Scored
2.00
Points
3
Overall Form
WLDWW
Away Form
DWDW
Away Record
0W-0D-0L
Crystal Palace vs Manchester City Head to Head
1 Home Wins
3 Draws
6 Away Wins
3.5
Avg Goals
5/10
BTTS
7/10
Over 2.5
2026-05-13
Crystal Palace 0-3 City
2025-12-14
Crystal Palace 0-3 City
2025-05-17
Crystal Palace 1-0 City
2025-04-12
Crystal Palace 2-5 City
2024-12-07
Crystal Palace 2-2 City
2024-04-06
Crystal Palace 2-4 City
2023-12-16
Crystal Palace 2-2 City
2023-03-11
Crystal Palace 0-1 City
2022-08-27
Crystal Palace 2-4 City
2022-03-14
Crystal Palace 0-0 City
Full Crystal Palace vs Manchester City head-to-head history →
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-2
9.9%
0-1
9.5%
0-2
9.5%
1-3
6.6%
0-3
6.3%
2-3
3.5%
1-4
3.3%
0-4
3.2%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Over 1.5 goals
85%
@1.22
Betano
-
Under 2 first half goals
85%
@1.18
Marathon Bet
-
Manchester City over 1 goals
85%
@1.18
Marathon Bet
-
Crystal Palace under 5.5 corners
85%
@1.18
Unibet
-
Under 4 goals
83%
@1.23
BetVictor
-
Under 2.5 second half goals
82%
@1.30
Betano
-
Over 7.5 corners
81%
@1.23
Unibet
-
Manchester City under 8.5 corners
81%
@1.24
Unibet
-
Under 12.5 corners
79%
@1.26
Unibet
-
Crystal Palace under 1.5 goals
78%
@1.34
1xBet
-
Over 0.5 first half goals
77%
@1.34
Betano
-
Over 1 second half goals
76%
@1.32
Marathon Bet
Build a slip from these markets →