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Sao Paulo know what's at stake, and so do Coritiba.
A Brasileirão Série A fixture between Sao Paulo and Coritiba. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Sao Paulo will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Coritiba travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Sao Paulo average 1.1 goals per game and Coritiba manage 1.3. Combined that's just 2.4. We make it only 47% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 44%.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Sao Paulo Win | @1.67 | 54.5% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.40 | 25.3% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Coritiba Win | @5.00 | 16.5% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.95 | 43.5% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @1.75 | 56.5% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @2.00 | 47.3% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.82 | 52.7% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.33 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.40 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.50 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.31 | - | Bet365 |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model makes Sao Paulo the favourite with a 54.5% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Sao Paulo @ 1.67, Draw @ 3.40, Coritiba @ 5.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Sao Paulo vs Coritiba kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 01:00 in the Brasileirão Série A.