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Coritiba know what's at stake, and so do Chapecoense.
Coritiba take on Chapecoense in the Brasileirão Série A. Let's break down what our data says about this one.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Coritiba will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Chapecoense travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Our PickCoritiba to win at @1.62. Model probability 56% vs implied 62%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Coritiba average 1.3 goals per game and Chapecoense manage 0.8. Combined that's just 2.0. We make it only 52% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 47%.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Coritiba Win | @1.62 | 55.9% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.60 | 24.8% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Chapecoense Win | @5.00 | 19.3% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.91 | 46.5% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @1.83 | 53.5% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.95 | 52.0% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.00 | 48.0% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.30 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.95 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.40 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.38 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Coritiba the favourite with a 55.9% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Coritiba @ 1.62, Draw @ 3.60, Chapecoense @ 5.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Coritiba vs Chapecoense kicks off on Sunday 9 August 2026 at 00:30 in the Brasileirão Série A.