Palmeiras vs Corinthians Prediction

Sunday 11 October 2026, 21:30 Brasileirão Série A

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1070 picks graded in public, misses included. The record

The model's read

Palmeiras 58% Draw 24% Corinthians 15%

The read

The desk

Palmeiras are second and in good home form; Corinthians have lost five straight and arrive fragile both home and away. That gap points to goals and a home win rather than the tight draw a derby label might tempt a casual bettor toward.

The model says

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The call on this game Palmeiras to win
The best price 1.62Bet365

Every call is logged before kick-off and graded in public. The whole record is on the track record, misses included.

Add the call to my slip · 1.62

Who is missing

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Team news · fetched, named, sourced
Palmeiras

Rony: suspended (3rd yellow card vs Fortaleza) · Aníbal Moreno: suspended (3rd yellow card vs Fortaleza) · Abel Ferreira: back on the bench after STJD ban

Corinthians

Fernando Diniz: head coach, replaced Dorival Júnior in April

Checked Thu 8 Oct, 00:25.

One game passed the rule today. It is in Pro, seven days for £1

The research

Pro
Markets the desk would leave alone
KILLED
Draw 3.75

The form gap argues against a split result: Palmeiras 2nd and W W D L at home, Corinthians 13th on five straight losses (L L L L L) and just 1 win in 4 away (L L W D). Rony and Aníbal Moreno's suspensions, both on third yellow cards against Fortaleza (Gazeta Esportiva), barely dent a squad with this form advantage.

The research desk on this game:

“Palmeiras's home form and Corinthians's five-game losing streak point to goals and a home win, not a draw.”

Every market graded strong, medium or killed, and the desk's own word on the model's call, with the reason written down. In FBB Pro, on this game and every other. Seven days for £1

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The model v the market

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Best priceImplied
Palmeiras win 1.62 62%
Draw 3.75 27%
Corinthians win 6.00 17%
Palmeiras or draw 1.13 88%
Corinthians or draw 2.50 40%
Either side to win, no draw 1.25 80%
Over 2.5 goals 2.10 48%
Both teams to score 2.10 48%

Best price across the books we track, the same price as the list below, where the book is named.

Model numbers are published only on leagues where our graded record supports them. Here the market's prices stand alone.

The shadow model's number on every market here, labelled as information and never on the record. In FBB Pro.

Every priced market

18 markets
Palmeiras or Corinthians (double chance) William Hill 1.25
Under 2 second half goals Marathon Bet 1.18
Under 3.5 goals Bet365 1.25
Palmeiras over 4.5 corners 1xBet 1.26
Corinthians over 2.5 corners Betano 1.30
Palmeiras under 8.5 corners 1xBet 1.22
Over 0.5 second half goals William Hill 1.30
Palmeiras under 2.5 goals Bet365 1.30
Palmeiras over 1 goals Marathon Bet 1.25
Corinthians under 1 goals Marathon Bet 1.27
Over 8.5 corners Betano 1.30
Under 12.5 corners Betano 1.32
Corinthians over 3 corners 1xBet 1.28
Over 1.5 goals Bet365 1.36
Under 1.5 first half goals BetVictor 1.37
Over 0.5 first half goals BetVictor 1.42
Over 7.5 shots on target Betano 1.42
Under 29.5 total shots (on + off target) Betano 1.45

The bookmakers' best prices on every market we track for this game, corners, cards and shots included. Prices are theirs, with their margin in; our own number appears only where the model has a graded record. Tap any to add it to your slip.

Since we first priced it

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Under 2.5 goals 1.82 to 1.76 shortening
Draw 3.80 to 3.70 shortening
No draw 1.22 to 1.25 drifting, longer
Over 2.5 goals 2.05 to 2.10 drifting, longer

The best price when we first priced this game, then the best price now. Drifting means the price got longer, shortening means shorter.

Recent form

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Palmeiras DWDWLD

Last 6, newest first: 2 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost. 9 scored, 5 conceded.

Sun 20 Sep at grêmio 0-0 Drew
Sat 12 Sep v Sao Paulo 2-0 Won
Sun 30 Aug at Mirassol 1-1 Drew
Sun 23 Aug v Vasco da Gama 4-1 Won
Sat 15 Aug at fluminense 2-3 Lost
Sun 9 Aug v Internacional 0-0 Drew
Corinthians LLLLLL

Last 6, newest first: 0 won, 0 drawn, 6 lost. 5 scored, 12 conceded.

Wed 7 Oct at internacional 1-2 Lost
Sun 20 Sep v Fluminense 1-3 Lost
Sun 13 Sep at flamengo 1-2 Lost
Sun 6 Sep v Chapecoense 1-2 Lost
Sun 30 Aug v santos 0-1 Lost
Sun 23 Aug at coritiba 1-2 Lost

Each side's last finished games in all competitions, their goals first. At home reads v, away reads at.

Palmeiras v Corinthians: the numbers

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PalmeirasCorinthians 2League position13 23-7-8League record, won-drawn-lost12-11-15 66-33Goals for and against42-47 76Points47 12-5-2Home record v away record4-5-10 1.70Scored a game1.10 0.90Conceded a game1.20 com.footballodds.service.XgService$TeamXg@6e0a0ee1xG forcom.footballodds.service.XgService$TeamXg@1c16e2f2 40%Clean sheets29% 21%Failed to score26% 50%Both teams scored64% 26%Over 2.5 goals13%

League record and goals from this season's table where the feed carries it; the rates are the share of each side's games in the data we hold.

Palmeiras vs Corinthians: FAQs

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Palmeiras vs Corinthians prediction: what is the call?

The call on this game is Palmeiras to win at 1.62. Every call is logged before kick-off and graded in public, misses included.

What time does Palmeiras vs Corinthians kick off?

Palmeiras vs Corinthians kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 21:30 UK time (Brasileirão Série A).

What are the best odds for Palmeiras vs Corinthians?

The best prices across the books we track: Palmeiras 1.62, the draw 3.75, Corinthians 6.00. Prices move; the table on this page is the latest.

Who is missing for Palmeiras vs Corinthians?

Palmeiras: Rony: suspended (3rd yellow card vs Fortaleza), Aníbal Moreno: suspended (3rd yellow card vs Fortaleza), Abel Ferreira: back on the bench after STJD ban. Corinthians: Fernando Diniz: head coach, replaced Dorival Júnior in April.

What form are Palmeiras and Corinthians in?

Palmeiras have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 6 (D W D W L D, newest first), scoring 9 and conceding 5. Corinthians have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 6 of their last 6 (L L L L L L, newest first), scoring 5 and conceding 12.

Recent singles, graded

Graded in public

Every single is locked before kick-off, one unit each, and graded whatever happens.

Pro

The singles we'd pick ourselves, with the research and the price behind each one

  • The daily singles. Each one cleared three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. Usually 0 to 5 a day, one unit each.
  • The case for each, put together. The last 12 against what the price needs, who is missing, the head to head, and the best price at a UK bookmaker, in one place.
  • The desk's card on every fixture it covers. Its verdict, every market graded, and the reason written down. And tomorrow's singles the night before.

Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.

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18+. BeGambleAware.org. Analysis and opinion, not betting advice.

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