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Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Corinthians arrive as the price says they should win. The question is how comfortably.
Tricky away day for Cruzeiro (3rd, 70 pts) as they travel to Corinthians (13th, 47 pts), but the visitors' league position tells you they should have more than enough here.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Corinthians will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Cruzeiro travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Corinthians will be looking to make home advantage count (W8 D6 L5 at home). Cruzeiro's away record reads W6 D9 L4. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them. Corinthians's home form is particularly impressive right now. They're performing above their season average on their own turf. Interestingly, Corinthians look better than their results show. The quality of chances they create is worth 1.5 a game, but they're only converting 1.1 goals. They're creating more than the scoreline shows and look due a few more goals.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Corinthians create chances worth 1.5 a game (and give up chances worth 1.0), leaving them +0.5 a game on the balance. Cruzeiro create 1.2 (giving up 1.0) for a balance of +0.2. The underlying numbers clearly favour Corinthians. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. Corinthians should be scoring more. Their chances are worth 1.5 a game but they're only getting 1.1 goals. When the finishing clicks, they'll be a handful.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Corinthians average 1.1 goals per game and Cruzeiro manage 1.4. Combined that's just 2.5. We make it only 39% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 45%.
Cruzeiro prefer to keep things tight (0.8 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for Corinthians against this setup.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Corinthians Win | @2.30 | 44.8% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.00 | 25.7% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Cruzeiro Win | @3.10 | 29.4% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.91 | 44.9% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @1.83 | 55.1% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @2.20 | 39.2% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.68 | 60.8% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.40 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.00 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @4.00 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.25 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Corinthians the favourite with a 44.8% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Corinthians @ 2.30, Draw @ 3.00, Cruzeiro @ 3.10. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Corinthians vs Cruzeiro kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 23:30 in the Brasileirão Série A.