Get the model's verified verdict on Colorado Rapids (and any team you follow) emailed the moment odds drop. Free, no spam, one-click unsubscribe.
All eyes on Colorado Rapids as Sporting Kansas City travel to face Colorado Rapids.
A MLS meeting between Colorado Rapids (11th, 41 pts) and Sporting Kansas City (15th, 28 pts). Two sides with their own objectives and plenty to play for.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Colorado Rapids will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Sporting Kansas City travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Our PickColorado Rapids to win at @1.36. Model probability 65% vs implied 74%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Colorado Rapids will be looking to make home advantage count (W8 D4 L5 at home). Sporting Kansas City's away record reads W3 D2 L12. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them. Interestingly, Colorado Rapids look better than their results show. The quality of chances they create is worth 1.7 a game, but they're only converting 1.3 goals. They're creating more than the scoreline shows and look due a few more goals. Sporting Kansas City are creating better chances than their goal return suggests (chance quality of 1.7 against 1.4 actual goals). They look due a few more.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Colorado Rapids create chances worth 1.7 a game (and give up chances worth 2.0), leaving them -0.3 a game on the balance. Sporting Kansas City create 1.7 (giving up 2.6) for a balance of -0.9. The underlying numbers clearly favour Colorado Rapids. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. Colorado Rapids should be scoring more. Their chances are worth 1.7 a game but they're only getting 1.3 goals. When the finishing clicks, they'll be a handful. Sporting Kansas City are creating chances worth 1.7 a game but only finishing 1.4. the underlying performance is better than the results show.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Colorado Rapids are scoring 1.3 a game (1.5 of those at home) and Sporting Kansas City manage 1.4 (1.2 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 68%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 53%. The chance-quality data backs the goals case. Colorado Rapids create chances worth 1.7 a game and Sporting Kansas City 1.7. Combined, that's 3.4 a game from open play alone.
Neither side has much to play for in the grand scheme. no European places within reach and relegation isn't a concern. That can make for an unpredictable game with less pressure on both sides.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Colorado Rapids Win | @1.36 | 65.2% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @5.00 | 18.7% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Sporting Kansas City Win | @6.50 | 14.0% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.60 | 52.5% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.25 | 47.5% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.40 | 68.3% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.88 | 31.7% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.11 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @6.50 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.00 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.78 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Colorado Rapids the favourite with a 65.2% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Colorado Rapids @ 1.36, Draw @ 5.00, Sporting Kansas City @ 6.50. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Colorado Rapids vs Sporting Kansas City kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 02:30 in the MLS.