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A test of nerve as much as quality when CF Montreal welcome DC United.
CF Montreal take on DC United in the MLS. Let's break down what our data says about this one.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. CF Montreal will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while DC United travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
CF Montreal will be looking to make home advantage count (W2 D6 L9 at home). DC United's away record reads W3 D4 L10. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them. CF Montreal's home form is particularly impressive right now. They're performing above their season average on their own turf. A concern for DC United: they're giving up chances worth 1.7 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.3 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
CF Montreal create chances worth 1.3 a game (and give up chances worth 1.5), leaving them -0.2 a game on the balance. DC United create 1.2 (giving up 1.3) for a balance of -0.1. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. DC United's defence is giving up chances. Worth 1.7 a game over their last 5 vs 1.3 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. CF Montreal average 1.0 goals per game and DC United manage 0.9. Combined that's just 1.9. We make it only 58% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 55%.
Neither defence inspires confidence. Both sides rarely keep clean sheets. Open, attacking football is on the cards.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | CF Montreal Win | @2.15 | 42.3% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.60 | 21.9% | William Hill |
| Match Result | DC United Win | @2.80 | 37.9% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.60 | 54.6% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.25 | 45.4% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.70 | 58.0% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.20 | 42.0% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.22 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.40 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.62 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.48 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes CF Montreal the favourite with a 42.3% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: CF Montreal @ 2.15, Draw @ 3.60, DC United @ 2.80. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
CF Montreal vs DC United kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 00:30 in the MLS.