Buxton v South Shields

Saturday 3 October 2026, 15:00 FA Cup

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1057 picks graded in public, misses included. The record

The model's read

Buxton 26% Draw 27% South Shields 48%

The read

The desk

South Shields arrive unbeaten in six and five wins clear of Buxton across their last ten meetings, while the hosts are missing captain Connor Kirby after a broken leg. Buxton have three wins in five of their own, but this reads as a tie for the Mariners to see out, not one for the Bucks to spring an upset in.

The model says

Always free
The call on this game BTTS: Yes
The best price 1.40BetVictor

Every call is logged before kick-off and graded in public. The whole record is on the track record, misses included.

Add the call to my slip · 1.40

Who is missing

Always free
Team news · fetched, named, sourced
Buxton

Connor Kirby: out, captain, broken leg since August, had surgery · Josh Shaw: sent off (second yellow) at Ashton United, status for this tie unclear

South Shields

Paul Blackett: doubt, heel problem

Checked Thu 1 Oct, 07:57.

The research

Pro
The research desk on this game:

“Missing their captain and trailing the head-to-head, Buxton look second favourites for a reason.”

Every market graded strong, medium or killed, and the desk's own word on the model's call, with the reason written down. In FBB Pro, on this game and every other. Seven days for £1

18+. BeGambleAware.org

The model v the market

Always free
Best priceImplied
Buxton win 3.10 32%
Draw 3.70 27%
South Shields win 2.00 50%
Buxton or draw 1.67 60%
South Shields or draw 1.30 77%
Either side to win, no draw 1.22 82%
Over 2.5 goals 1.50 67%
Both teams to score 1.40 71%

Best price across the books we track, the same price as the list below, where the book is named.

Model numbers are published only on leagues where our graded record supports them. Here the market's prices stand alone.

The shadow model's number on every market here, labelled as information and never on the record. In FBB Pro.

Every priced market

14 markets
South Shields over 1 goals Marathon Bet 1.18
Buxton or South Shields (double chance) Bet365 1.22
Under 4.5 goals BetVictor 1.22
Over 1 second half goals Marathon Bet 1.21
Under 2 first half goals Marathon Bet 1.24
Over 0.5 first half goals 1xBet 1.24
Buxton over 0.5 goals 1xBet 1.24
Buxton under 2 goals Marathon Bet 1.25
South Shields or Draw (double chance) Bet365 1.30
Under 4 goals Marathon Bet 1.29
South Shields under 2.5 goals 1xBet 1.35
Under 2.5 second half goals 1xBet 1.33
Both teams to score: Yes BetVictor 1.40
Over 2.5 goals Bet365 1.50

The bookmakers' best prices on every market we track for this game, corners, cards and shots included. Prices are theirs, with their margin in; our own number appears only where the model has a graded record. Tap any to add it to your slip.

Recent singles, graded

Graded in public

Every single is locked before kick-off, one unit each, and graded whatever happens.

Pro

The singles we'd pick ourselves, with the research and the price behind each one

  • The daily singles. Each one cleared three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. Usually 0 to 5 a day, one unit each.
  • The case for each, put together. The last 12 against what the price needs, who is missing, the head to head, and the best price at a UK bookmaker, in one place.
  • The desk's card on every fixture it covers. Its verdict, every market graded, and the reason written down. And tomorrow's singles the night before.

Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.

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The pick of the day is free, in full, on days with two or more singles. 18+. BeGambleAware.org. Analysis and opinion, not betting advice.

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