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Three points on the line and a story to write. Burnley host Notts County.
A EFL Cup fixture between Burnley and Notts County. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Burnley will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Notts County travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Burnley average 0.7 goals per game and Notts County manage 1.3. Combined that's just 2.0. We make it only 56% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 50%.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Burnley Win | @1.57 | 53.5% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.90 | 24.7% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Notts County Win | @5.00 | 21.8% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.67 | 49.9% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.10 | 50.1% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.70 | 55.7% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.20 | 44.3% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.20 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.33 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.62 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.45 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Burnley the favourite with a 53.5% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Burnley @ 1.57, Draw @ 3.90, Notts County @ 5.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Burnley vs Notts County kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 15:00 in the EFL Cup.