Who is favourite to win Wrexham vs Birmingham?

Our model rates Birmingham as the favourite with a 41.6% win probability. The full 1X2 split: Wrexham 30.0%, draw 26.4%, Birmingham 41.6%.

Where can I watch Wrexham vs Birmingham?

Check official Championship broadcaster listings (Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Premier Sports, BBC, ITV) for live TV coverage. UK streaming details are confirmed by rights holders closer to kickoff.

How many goals are expected in Wrexham vs Birmingham?

Our model gives Over 2.5 goals a 45.7% probability and Under 2.5 goals 54.3%. The lean is towards a tighter, lower-scoring affair.

70% verified · 812 picks Championship Friday 28 August 2026, 20:00

Wrexham vs Birmingham Predictions & Odds

W Wrexham 30.0% @2.40

VS Draw 26.4%

B Birmingham 41.6% @2.88

Our model call Leans Birmingham, but only just A 42% call, draw at 26%.

★★★

Match result modelmarket

Wrexham 30% 2.40 Draw 26% 3.20 Birmingham 42% 2.88

Goals modelmarket

Under 2.5 54% 1.83 Over 2.5 46% 2.00 Over 1.5 @1.33

Both teams to score modelmarket

No 45% 2.00 Yes 55% 1.75

30+ rated markets on this game, every leg tracked in public Build this bet →

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03Model vs the market

Our Model vs The Market

Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.

Market	Our model	Bookies imply	Difference
Wrexham Win	30.0%	42.0%	12 pts under
Over 2.5 Goals	45.7%	52.1%	6 pts under
Both Teams to Score	54.7%	58.1%	3 pts under

What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.

Key Stats

🎯 Both teams scored in 74% of Wrexham home games

01The read

Wrexham vs Birmingham: Who Takes the Bragging Rights?

The model makes Birmingham 42% favourites here. Wrexham carry the 30% upset.

Birmingham slight edge (42%) | Predicted: 0-1 Confidence ★★★★★

There's barely anything between these two. Wrexham (14th, 2 pts) and Birmingham (14th, 2 pts) meet in a fixture that could shape the Championship table.

Our verdict

Marginal call: Birmingham at just 42%. With the draw at 26%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Birmingham, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.

Where's the value?

Our model spots value here: Birmingham to win at @2.88 (our model: 42%, bookmakers imply: 35%). A 7% edge over the market.

Key facts

🤝

Draw Merchants 2 draws from 4 meetings. Stalemates are the pattern here

⚽

Open Games Both teams score in 65% of Wrexham's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet

▸ Form & goals

Wrexham will be looking to make home advantage count (W0 D1 L0 at home). Birmingham's away record reads W0 D1 L0. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them.

xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.

Wrexham create chances worth 1.2 a game (and give up chances worth 1.6), leaving them -0.4 a game on the balance. Birmingham create 1.2 (giving up 1.2) for a balance of 0.0. On the quality of chances, Birmingham look the stronger side. they create more and give up less.

Wrexham average 1.0 goals per game and Birmingham manage 1.0. Combined that's just 2.0. We make it 46% for three or more, so there's no strong lean on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 55%.

Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 74% of Wrexham's home games and 48% of Birmingham's away matches.

▸ Team news & context

Neither side has much to play for in the grand scheme. no European places within reach and relegation isn't a concern. That can make for an unpredictable game with less pressure on both sides.

In the last 4 meetings: Wrexham have won 0, Birmingham 2, with 2 draws. These fixtures average 2.5 goals per game. 1 of the last 4 produced 3+ goals. Both teams have scored in most of their recent meetings, so there's a good chance both find the net again. Recent results: Birmingham 2-0 Wrexham, Wrexham 1-1 Birmingham, Wrexham 1-1 Birmingham.

▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half

First Half Result

Wrexham HT 2.90
Draw HT 2.15
Birmingham HT 3.30

Team Intel

📊 Wrexham · xG

For: 1.20/g Against: 1.55/g

📊 Birmingham · xG

For: 1.23/g Against: 1.19/g

Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market

The complete price grid across all bookmakers.

Wrexham vs Birmingham Odds Comparison

Market	Selection	Odds	Probability	Bookmaker
Match Result	Wrexham Win	@2.40	30.0%	William Hill
Match Result	Draw	@3.20	26.4%	William Hill
Match Result	Birmingham Win	@2.88	41.6%	William Hill
BTTS	Yes	@1.75	54.7%	William Hill
BTTS	No	@2.00	45.3%	William Hill
Goals	Over 2.5	@2.00	45.7%	Bet365
Goals	Under 2.5	@1.83	54.3%	Bet365
Goals	Over 1.5	@1.33	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 1.5	@3.47	-	Bet365
Goals	Over 3.5	@3.50	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 3.5	@1.32	-	Bet365

05The numbers

Recent Form

Wrexham

2 unbeaten

Last 5 DDLDL

At home DDW

Clean sheets 26% BTTS 65% FTS 13%

Birmingham

5 unbeaten

Last 5 DDWDW

On the road DWDD

Clean sheets 22% BTTS 57% FTS 24%

Wrexham vs Birmingham Team Stats

Wrexham AFC

Position 14

Played 2

Record 0W-2D-0L

Goals F/A 2/2

Avg Goals Scored 1.00

Points 2

Overall Form DDLDL

Home Form DDW

Home Record 0W-1D-0L

Birmingham City FC

Position 14

Played 2

Record 0W-2D-0L

Goals F/A 2/2

Avg Goals Scored 1.00

Points 2

Overall Form DDWDW

Away Form DWDD

Away Record 0W-1D-0L

Wrexham vs Birmingham Head to Head

0 Home Wins 2 Draws 2 Away Wins

2.5 Avg Goals

3/4 BTTS

1/4 Over 2.5

2026-04-12 Wrexham 0-2 Birmingham

2025-10-03 Wrexham 1-1 Birmingham

2025-01-23 Wrexham 1-1 Birmingham

2024-09-16 Wrexham 1-3 Birmingham

Full Wrexham vs Birmingham head-to-head history →

Most Likely Scorelines

MOST LIKELY 0-0 13.5%

0-1 13.5%

1-0 13.5%

1-1 13.5%

0-2 6.8%

1-2 6.8%

2-0 6.8%

2-1 6.8%

Full Market Breakdown

Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Market singles 12 priced markets

Wrexham under 2 goals 84% @1.19 Marathon Bet
Over 0.5 second half goals 81% @1.26 Betano
Under 2 second half goals 80% @1.25 Marathon Bet
Wrexham over 0.5 goals 79% @1.30 Bet365
Under 3.5 goals 79% @1.32 Betano
Over 1.5 goals 78% @1.34 Betano
Wrexham or Birmingham (double chance) 77% @1.36 Bet365
Birmingham over 0.5 goals 76% @1.34 Betano
Under 1.5 first half goals 74% @1.40 William Hill
Over 0.5 first half goals 74% @1.47 Betano
Wrexham or Draw (double chance) 74% @1.42 Betano
Birmingham under 1.5 goals 69% @1.45 Betano

Build a slip from these markets →

Build your own bet

Our Wrexham v Birmingham builder

Our model's suggested selections (each one's a "leg"). Tap to build it, then place with your own bookmaker.

1 No Draw 73% @ 1.37
2 Over 1.5 Goals 77% @ 1.30

@1.78 £10 returns £17.79

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Wrexham vs Birmingham: FAQs

Who will win Wrexham vs Birmingham?

Our model makes Birmingham the favourite with a 41.6% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.

What are the best odds for Wrexham vs Birmingham?

Best available odds: Wrexham @ 2.40, Draw @ 3.20, Birmingham @ 2.88. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.

What time does Wrexham vs Birmingham kick off?

Wrexham vs Birmingham kicks off on Friday 28 August 2026 at 20:00 in the Championship.

Will both teams score in Wrexham vs Birmingham?

Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 54.7% probability.

Wrexham vs Birmingham prediction and betting tips?

Our top prediction is Birmingham to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.