Rep. Of Ireland v Austria

Thursday 1 October 2026, 19:45 UEFA Nations League

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1057 picks graded in public, misses included. The record

The model's read

Rep. Of Ireland 25% Draw 29% Austria 46%

The read

The desk

Ireland host Austria missing six key players including captain Nathan Collins and striker Evan Ferguson, while Austria are down only Marcel Sabitzer. Neither side looks well-drilled enough to keep a clean sheet, but backing the home side outright ignores just how threadbare their team sheet really is.

The model says

Always free
The call on this game Austria to win
The best price 2.10William Hill

Every call is logged before kick-off and graded in public. The whole record is on the track record, misses included.

Add the call to my slip · 2.10

Who is missing

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Team news · fetched, named, sourced
Rep. Of Ireland

Nathan Collins: out, calf injury (captain) · Evan Ferguson: out · Jamie McGrath: out · Mikey Johnston: out · Harvey Vale: out · Josh Cullen: out

Austria

Marcel Sabitzer: out, rested by agreement with the manager

Checked Mon 28 Sep, 00:47.

2 games passed the rule today. See which, seven days for £1

The research

Pro
The research desk on this game:

“Ireland missing six key names host an Austria side winless in 4 away, this points at goals, not a home win.”

Every market graded strong, medium or killed, and the desk's own word on the model's call, with the reason written down. In FBB Pro, on this game and every other. Seven days for £1

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The model v the market

Always free
Best priceImplied
Rep. Of Ireland win 3.40 29%
Draw 3.30 30%
Austria win 2.10 48%
Rep. Of Ireland or draw 1.73 58%
Austria or draw 1.30 77%
Either side to win, no draw 1.33 75%
Over 2.5 goals 2.20 45%
Both teams to score 1.91 52%

Best price across the books we track, the same price as the list below, where the book is named.

Model numbers are published only on leagues where our graded record supports them. Here the market's prices stand alone.

The shadow model's number on every market here, labelled as information and never on the record. In FBB Pro.

Every priced market

12 markets
Under 2 second half goals Marathon Bet 1.18
Under 3.5 goals Bet365 1.22
Austria or Draw (double chance) Bet365 1.30
Austria over 0.5 goals Bet365 1.25
Austria under 2 goals Marathon Bet 1.24
Rep. Of Ireland or Austria (double chance) William Hill 1.33
Over 0.5 second half goals William Hill 1.30
Rep. Of Ireland under 1.5 goals Bet365 1.33
Under 1.5 first half goals BetVictor 1.34
Under 3 goals BetVictor 1.32
Over 0.5 first half goals BetVictor 1.46
Rep. Of Ireland over 0.5 goals BetVictor 1.47

The bookmakers' best prices on every market we track for this game, corners, cards and shots included. Prices are theirs, with their margin in; our own number appears only where the model has a graded record. Tap any to add it to your slip.

Since we first priced it

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Home win 2.90 to 3.30 drifting, longer
BTTS no 2.05 to 1.83 shortening
BTTS yes 1.73 to 1.91 drifting, longer
Over 2.5 goals 2.00 to 2.20 drifting, longer
Under 2.5 goals 1.87 to 1.70 shortening
Away win 2.25 to 2.10 shortening
Draw 3.30 to 3.10 shortening
Home or draw 1.62 to 1.70 drifting, longer
No draw 1.30 to 1.33 drifting, longer

The best price when we first priced this game, then the best price now. Drifting means the price got longer, shortening means shorter.

Recent singles, graded

Graded in public

Every single is locked before kick-off, one unit each, and graded whatever happens.

Pro

The singles we'd pick ourselves, with the research and the price behind each one

  • The daily singles. Each one cleared three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. Usually 0 to 5 a day, one unit each.
  • The case for each, put together. The last 12 against what the price needs, who is missing, the head to head, and the best price at a UK bookmaker, in one place.
  • The desk's card on every fixture it covers. Its verdict, every market graded, and the reason written down. And tomorrow's singles the night before.

Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.

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The pick of the day is free, in full, on days with two or more singles. 18+. BeGambleAware.org. Analysis and opinion, not betting advice.

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