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Projected from club-season form, informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.
Projections from club-season form only, informational, never recorded or graded, and outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Austin know what's at stake, and so do FC Dallas.
There's barely anything between these two. Austin (6th, 47 pts) and FC Dallas (7th, 44 pts) meet in a fixture that could shape the MLS table.
M. Uzuni has been Austin's spearhead, with 6 goals and 0 assists in 16 appearances, averaging 1.00 shots on target per game. L. Farrington has been FC Dallas's main threat, with 6 goals and 2 assists in 17 appearances, averaging 0.71 shots on target per game.
Our PickThree or more goals at @1.57. Model probability 63% vs implied 64%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Austin create chances worth 1.1 a game (and give up chances worth 1.9), leaving them -0.8 a game on the balance. FC Dallas create 1.4 (giving up 1.8) for a balance of -0.4. On the quality of chances, FC Dallas look the stronger side. they create more and give up less.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Austin are scoring 1.3 a game (1.3 of those at home) and FC Dallas manage 1.5 (1.5 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 63%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 57%. A word of caution on the chances: even though the goals numbers point up, the combined chance quality is only worth 2.4 a game. These sides aren't creating as much as their goal tallies suggest. Hot finishing has flattered the numbers.
Both sides are in the chasing pack. Austin (6th) and FC Dallas (7th) are still in touch with the playoff places, and a result here matters.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Austin Win | @2.70 | 28.8% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.75 | 23.4% | William Hill |
| Match Result | FC Dallas Win | @2.20 | 45.8% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.50 | 56.8% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.45 | 43.2% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.57 | 62.8% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.40 | 37.2% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.17 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @5.00 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.38 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.60 | - | Bet365 |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model makes FC Dallas the favourite with a 45.8% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Austin @ 2.70, Draw @ 3.75, FC Dallas @ 2.20. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Austin vs FC Dallas kicks off on Monday 17 August 2026 at 01:30 in the MLS.