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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score | 52.1% | 62.5% | 10 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 53.9% | 57.8% | 4 pts under |
| Atletico San Luis Win | 21.8% | 25.6% | 4 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced — no edge there.
Atletico San Luis know what's at stake, and so do Cruz Azul.
A Liga MX fixture between Atletico San Luis and Cruz Azul. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Atletico San Luis will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Cruz Azul travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Marginal call: Cruz Azul at just 53%. With the draw at 25%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Cruz Azul, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
The goals side is finely balanced. We make it 54% for three or more. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 52%.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Atletico San Luis Win | @4.00 | 21.8% | Bet365 |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.60 | 25.3% | Bet365 |
| Match Result | Cruz Azul Win | @1.83 | 52.9% | Bet365 |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.70 | 52.1% | Bet365 |
| BTTS | No | @2.15 | 47.9% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.75 | 53.9% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.08 | 46.1% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.22 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.10 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.75 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.44 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Cruz Azul the favourite with a 52.9% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Atletico San Luis @ 4.00, Draw @ 3.60, Cruz Azul @ 1.83. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Atletico San Luis vs Cruz Azul kicks off on Saturday 18 July 2026 at 02:00 in the Liga MX.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 52.1% probability.
Our top prediction is Cruz Azul to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance — every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.