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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score | 51.8% | 62.1% | 10 pts under |
| FC Juarez Win | 53.2% | 61.7% | 9 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55.7% | 59.9% | 4 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced — no edge there.
FC Juarez know what's at stake, and so do Puebla.
A Liga MX fixture between FC Juarez and Puebla. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. FC Juarez will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Puebla travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Marginal call: FC Juarez at just 53%. With the draw at 24%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for FC Juarez, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
The goals side is finely balanced. We make it 56% for three or more. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 52%.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | FC Juarez Win | @1.62 | 53.2% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.60 | 23.8% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Puebla Win | @4.40 | 23.0% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.62 | 51.8% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.10 | 48.2% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.70 | 55.7% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.15 | 44.3% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.20 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.33 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.62 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.47 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes FC Juarez the favourite with a 53.2% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: FC Juarez @ 1.62, Draw @ 3.60, Puebla @ 4.40. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
FC Juarez vs Puebla kicks off on Saturday 18 July 2026 at 04:00 in the Liga MX.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 51.8% probability.
Our top prediction is FC Juarez to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance — every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.