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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score | 48.7% | 58.5% | 10 pts under |
| Leon Win | 44.6% | 51.3% | 7 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 50.7% | 54.1% | 3 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced — no edge there.
Leon know what's at stake, and so do Atlas.
Leon welcome Atlas in the Liga MX. We've crunched the numbers. Here's our preview.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Leon will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Atlas travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Marginal call: Leon at just 45%. With the draw at 28%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Leon, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
The goals side is finely balanced. We make it 51% for three or more. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 49%.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Leon Win | @1.95 | 44.6% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.00 | 27.8% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Atlas Win | @3.40 | 27.6% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.73 | 48.7% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @1.95 | 51.3% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.95 | 50.7% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.87 | 49.3% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.28 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.50 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.40 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.34 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Leon the favourite with a 44.6% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Leon @ 1.95, Draw @ 3.00, Atlas @ 3.40. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Leon vs Atlas kicks off on Saturday 18 July 2026 at 02:00 in the Liga MX.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 48.7% probability.
Our top prediction is Leon to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance — every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.