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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score | 53.8% | 64.5% | 11 pts under |
| Guadalajara Chivas Win | 40.1% | 45.5% | 5 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 54.8% | 58.8% | 4 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced — no edge there.
The key duel: Toluca's attack against Guadalajara Chivas's back line.
Guadalajara Chivas welcome Toluca in the Liga MX. We've crunched the numbers. Here's our preview.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Guadalajara Chivas will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Toluca travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Marginal call: Guadalajara Chivas at just 40%. With the draw at 24%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Guadalajara Chivas, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
The goals side is finely balanced. We make it 55% for three or more. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 54%.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Guadalajara Chivas Win | @2.20 | 40.1% | Bet365 |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.50 | 24.4% | Bet365 |
| Match Result | Toluca Win | @3.00 | 35.5% | Bet365 |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.57 | 53.8% | Bet365 |
| BTTS | No | @2.32 | 46.2% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.70 | 54.8% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.18 | 45.2% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.20 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.33 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.62 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.47 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Guadalajara Chivas the favourite with a 40.1% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Guadalajara Chivas @ 2.20, Draw @ 3.50, Toluca @ 3.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Guadalajara Chivas vs Toluca kicks off on Sunday 19 July 2026 at 02:07 in the Liga MX.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 53.8% probability.
Our top prediction is Guadalajara Chivas to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance — every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.