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Atletico-MG arrive as the price says they should win. The question is how comfortably.
Atletico-MG take on Gremio in the Brasileirão Série A. Let's break down what our data says about this one.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Atletico-MG will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Gremio travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Atletico-MG create chances worth 1.2 a game (and give up chances worth 1.5), leaving them -0.3 a game on the balance. Gremio create 1.6 (giving up 1.3) for a balance of +0.3. On the quality of chances, Gremio look the stronger side. they create more and give up less.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Atletico-MG average 1.0 goals per game and Gremio manage 1.2. Combined that's just 2.2. We make it only 47% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 45%.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Atletico-MG Win | @1.75 | 51.0% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.30 | 24.4% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Gremio Win | @4.50 | 22.7% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.91 | 44.9% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @1.83 | 55.1% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @2.00 | 47.3% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.82 | 52.7% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.30 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.50 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.50 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.31 | - | Bet365 |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model makes Atletico-MG the favourite with a 51.0% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Atletico-MG @ 1.75, Draw @ 3.30, Gremio @ 4.50. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Atletico-MG vs Gremio kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 20:30 in the Brasileirão Série A.