01The read
Analysing Arouca vs Maritimo: Who Wins?
Arouca 43%, the draw 27%, Maritimo 32%. That's the shape of this one.
Arouca have won four of their last five; Maritimo are unbeaten in their last five. Form gives little away going into this Primeira Liga tie.
Key facts
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 67% of Maritimo's matches this season
▸ Form & goals
Arouca's home form is particularly impressive right now. They're performing above their season average on their own turf.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Arouca are scoring 1.4 a game (1.6 of those at home) and Maritimo manage 1.7 (1.7 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 43%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 46%.
▸ Team news & context
In the last 10 meetings: Arouca have won 5, Maritimo 2, with 3 draws. These fixtures average 2.6 goals per game. 5 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Arouca 1-0 Maritimo, Maritimo 1-1 Arouca, Arouca 0-3 Maritimo.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
-
Arouca HT
2.70
-
Draw HT
2.10
-
Maritimo HT
3.90
Latest News
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Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Arouca vs Maritimo Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Arouca Win |
@2.15
|
43.0% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.10
|
26.8% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Maritimo Win |
@3.30
|
32.2% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.85
|
46.2% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@1.85
|
53.8% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@2.08
|
42.6% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@1.77
|
57.4% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.33
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@3.25
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@3.75
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.28
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Arouca vs Maritimo Team Stats
Arouca
Position
8
Played
34
Record
12W-6D-16L
Goals F/A
47/64
Avg Goals Scored
1.40
Points
42
Overall Form
LWWWW
Home Form
WWD
Home Record
7W-4D-6L
Maritimo
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Arouca vs Maritimo Head to Head
5 Home Wins
3 Draws
2 Away Wins
2.6
Avg Goals
6/10
BTTS
5/10
Over 2.5
2023-04-08
Arouca 1-0 Maritimo
2022-10-23
Arouca 1-1 Maritimo
2022-02-14
Arouca 0-3 Maritimo
2021-09-13
Arouca 2-2 Maritimo
2017-03-19
Arouca 1-3 Maritimo
2016-10-30
Arouca 1-0 Maritimo
2016-04-24
Arouca 2-1 Maritimo
2015-12-19
Arouca 4-1 Maritimo
2015-05-03
Arouca 1-1 Maritimo
2014-12-21
Arouca 1-0 Maritimo
Full Arouca vs Maritimo head-to-head history →
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-1
10.8%
0-1
9.0%
0-2
8.1%
1-0
6.1%
0-0
5.1%
2-0
3.6%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Same-game fold one leg per market, live prices
-
Under 3.5 goals
Smart
82%
@1.28
Betano
-
Under 11.5 corners
Smart
84%
@1.19
Unibet
-
Dylan Nandin 1+ shots on target
77%
@1.30
Bet365
-
Ivan MartInez Gonzalvez 1+ shots on target
69%
@1.44
Bet365
-
Vladislav Morozov 1+ shots on target
69%
@1.44
Bet365
Combined 4.11
· £5 returns
£20.53
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Under 11.5 corners
84%
@1.19
Unibet
-
Si-hoo Park 1+ shots
83%
@1.20
Bet365
-
Enrique Pena Zauner 1+ shots
83%
@1.20
Bet365
-
Under 3.5 goals
82%
@1.28
Betano
-
Under 2 second half goals
82%
@1.22
Marathon Bet
-
Arouca over 2.5 corners
82%
@1.27
Unibet
-
Maritimo over 2.5 corners
82%
@1.26
Superbet
-
Arouca under 2 goals
81%
@1.23
Marathon Bet
-
Arouca or Draw (double chance)
81%
@1.36
Bet365
-
Arouca over 0.5 goals
81%
@1.27
Unibet
-
Over 0.5 second half goals
80%
@1.30
William Hill
-
Arouca or Maritimo (double chance)
80%
@1.36
1xBet
Build a slip from these markets →