01The read
Analysing Aarhus vs Benfica: Who Wins?
The model makes Benfica 58% favourites here. Aarhus carry the 18% upset.
Aarhus have lost three in a row; Benfica are unbeaten in their last five. Form gives little away going into this Europa League tie.
Our pick
Tracking this league
Our PickBenfica to win at @1.50. Model probability 58% vs implied 67%. The market is 9pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Key facts
📉
Home Wobble
Aarhus arrive off 3 straight defeats. The home crowd will need something early
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 67% of Aarhus's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet
🎯
Goals Lean
We make it 64% for three or more goals in this one
▸ Form & goals
Goals look likely here. Aarhus average 1.5 per game (1.5 at home) and Benfica chip in with 3.1 (3.1 away). Defensively, Aarhus concede 2.0 at home and Benfica leak 1.3 on the road. We make it 64% for three or more goals. The numbers back it without being overwhelming. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 52%. Two or more goals at @1.14 is a steadier alternative for accas.
▸ Team news & context
European nights carry a magic all of their own. The anthem, the spotlight, the occasion. Both sets of players will be desperate to deliver under the continental floodlights.
Benfica have goals in them (3.1 per game) but their record at the back (1.3 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
Most likely scorelines: 1-2 (9%) and 1-3 (8%).
First Half Result
-
Aarhus HT
5.00
-
Draw HT
2.50
-
Benfica HT
1.91
Latest News
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Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Aarhus vs Benfica Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Aarhus Win |
@4.80
|
18.1% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@4.33
|
24.0% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Benfica Win |
@1.50
|
57.9% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.60
|
52.1% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.20
|
47.9% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.50
|
64.3% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.55
|
35.7% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.14
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@5.25
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@2.20
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.62
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-2
8.7%
1-3
7.5%
0-3
5.4%
2-3
5.2%
1-4
4.8%
0-4
3.4%
2-4
3.4%
1-5
2.5%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Over 0.5 first half goals
85%
@1.30
Betano
-
Under 4.5 goals
85%
@1.26
Betano
-
Benfica under 3 goals
85%
@1.19
1xBet
-
Under 2 first half goals
81%
@1.23
Marathon Bet
-
Over 7.5 corners
81%
@1.24
Betano
-
Under 2.5 second half goals
80%
@1.35
Betano
-
Over 1 second half goals
79%
@1.26
Marathon Bet
-
Under 4 goals
79%
@1.36
BetVictor
-
Aarhus under 1.5 goals
77%
@1.38
1xBet
-
Under 11.5 corners
74%
@1.36
Betano
-
Benfica under 2.5 goals
70%
@1.57
Bet365
-
Aarhus over 0.5 goals
70%
@1.50
Bet365
Build a slip from these markets →