Toluca v Monterrey bet builder
A research tool, not a bookmaker, we build the picks, you place them with your own bookie. We don't take bets. 18+
The model's build
No record in this league yet, the market's prices only-
1.27 +
Toluca or draw
79% the modelOur board prices this at 79%, the same number shown on the homepage and previews. (API-Football's own model has it at 90%.)
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1.07 +
Over 2.5 Goals
80%+ the modelGoals: the sides' goal rates read 3.50 and 2.50, so Over 2.5 Goals at 80%+.
Built from the bookmakers' prices for Toluca v Monterrey, 74% combined. Legs from one game move together, so read it as a guide.
Alternative picks
- Under 4.5 Goals 71% 1.34 +
- Under 3.5 Goals 56% 1.77 +
- Toluca Home Win 54% 1.62 +
- Over 3.5 Goals 51% 2.00 +
- Toluca (first half) First Half 50% 2.06 +
More to build with
Extra markets · not trackedPlayer form
Projected from club-season form, informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.
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F. Viñas TolucaShots on target 1+
F. Viñas: 1.09 shots on target a game over 11 games [WC form: 2.20/90 over 2 games (123 min), 23% weight
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Helinho TolucaShots on target 1+
Helinho: 1.31 shots on target a game over 13 games, home against a side conceding 4.5 a game
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L. Ocampos MonterreyShots on target 1+
L. Ocampos: 1.36 shots on target a game over 11 games, away against a side conceding 4.5 a game
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L. Orellano MonterreyShots on target 1+
L. Orellano: 1.00 shots on target a game over 12 games, away against a side conceding 4.5 a game
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A. Vega TolucaShots on target 1+
A. Vega: 0.67 shots on target a game over 12 games, home against a side conceding 4.5 a game
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N. Castro TolucaShots on target 1+
N. Castro: 0.67 shots on target a game over 12 games, home against a side conceding 4.5 a game
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F. Viñas TolucaAnytime scorer
F. Viñas: 0.64 goals a game over 11 games [WC form: 0.00/90 over 2 games (123 min), 23% weight
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F. Viñas TolucaShots on target 2+
F. Viñas: 1.09 shots on target a game over 11 games [WC form: 2.20/90 over 2 games (123 min), 23% weight
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L. Ocampos MonterreyAnytime scorer
L. Ocampos: 0.55 goals a game over 11 games, away against a side conceding 1.50 a game
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Helinho TolucaShots on target 2+
Helinho: 1.31 shots on target a game over 13 games, home against a side conceding 4.5 a game
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J. Díaz TolucaShots on target 1+
J. Díaz: 0.46 shots on target a game over 13 games, home against a side conceding 4.5 a game
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Helinho TolucaAnytime assist
Helinho on 0.46 assists/match (13 apps, 35 key passes), match xG 2.71
Projections from club-season form only. We never record or grade player markets. They sit outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Match stats
Projected from each side's real season averages, and priced by us rather than taken from a bookmaker. These sit outside the tracked record, so build your own bet from them.
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Over 11.5 Match Corners 50%Corners: Toluca avg 8.1 for/5.3 against, Monterrey avg 6.3 for/3.6 against so expected 11.7 match corners
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Over 9.5 Match Corners 73%Corners: Toluca avg 8.1 for/5.3 against, Monterrey avg 6.3 for/3.6 against so expected 11.7 match corners; the safer line
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Over 4.5 Match Cards 46%Cards: Toluca avg 1.9/game, Monterrey avg 2.6/game so expected 4.5 match cards
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Over 2.5 Match Cards 80%+Cards: Toluca avg 1.9/game, Monterrey avg 2.6/game so expected 4.5 match cards; the safer line
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Over 24.5 Match Fouls 44%Fouls: Toluca avg 13.2/game, Monterrey avg 10.7/game so expected 23.9 match fouls
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Over 20.5 Match Fouls 75%Fouls: Toluca avg 13.2/game, Monterrey avg 10.7/game so expected 23.9 match fouls; the safer line
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Over 26.5 Match Shots 80%+Shots: Toluca avg 20.3/game, Monterrey avg 12.7/game so expected 33.0 match shots
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Over 22.5 Match Shots 80%+Shots: Toluca avg 20.3/game, Monterrey avg 12.7/game so expected 33.0 match shots; the safer line
How this is built
The model prices every fixture before kick-off. This build is its strongest team-market legs for this game: the result, goals, both teams to score. The number beside a leg is the model's own chance; the price is the fair price at that chance. Player legs are information, never part of the record. This league is not on the record yet, so these legs are the model's read of the market, not a graded call.
The market's own prices
Bookmaker prices with the margin still in. These are the market's numbers, not the model's, and no record of ours stands behind them. A price at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles
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Under 2.5 first half goals 83% market William Hill1.20 +
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Toluca under 3 goals 80% market Marathon Bet1.25 +
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Under 4.5 goals 78% market BetVictor1.30 +
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Monterrey over 0.5 goals 78% market BetVictor1.30 +
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Under 2 first half goals 77% market BetVictor1.34 +
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Under 2.5 second half goals 74% market William Hill1.35 +
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Over 2.5 goals 74% market BetVictor1.40 +
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Both teams to score: Yes 71% market William Hill1.40 +
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Toluca over 1.5 goals 71% market BetVictor1.44 +
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Under 4 goals 71% market BetVictor1.44 +
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Monterrey under 1.5 goals 68% market BetVictor1.47 +
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The singles we'd pick ourselves, with the research and the price behind each one
- The daily singles. Each one cleared three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. Usually 0 to 5 a day, one unit each.
- The case for each, put together. The last 12 against what the price needs, who is missing, the head to head, and the best price at a UK bookmaker, in one place.
- The desk's card on every fixture it covers. Its verdict, every market graded, and the reason written down. And tomorrow's singles the night before.
Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.