Sao Paulo v Fluminense bet builder

Friday 20 November 2026, 00:30 · Brasileirão Série A

A research tool, not a bookmaker, we build the picks, you place them with your own bookie. We don't take bets. 18+

The model's build

No record in this league yet, the market's prices only

Fluminense or draw

60% the model

Our board prices this at 60%, the same number shown on the homepage and previews. (API-Football's own model has it at 90%.)

1.67 +
Over 2.5 Goals

80%+ the model

Goals: the sides' goal rates read 2.50 and 2.50, so Over 2.5 Goals at 80%+.

1.14 +

Combined fair odds2 legs, 52% chance all land

1.90

Built from the bookmakers' prices for Sao Paulo v Fluminense, 53% combined. Legs from one game move together, so read it as a guide.

Alternative picks

Sao Paulo or Draw Double Chance 76% 1.32 +
Over 1.5 Goals 73% 1.39 +

More to build with

Extra markets · not tracked

Player form

Projected from club-season form, informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.

J. Savarino Fluminense

Shots on target 1+

J. Savarino: 0.83 shots on target a game over 24 games, away against a side conceding 4.5 a game
J. Calleri Sao Paulo

Shots on target 1+

J. Calleri: 0.67 shots on target a game over 27 games, home against a side conceding 4.5 a game
Luciano Sao Paulo

Shots on target 1+

Luciano: 0.65 shots on target a game over 26 games, home against a side conceding 4.5 a game
A. Canobbio Fluminense

Shots on target 1+

A. Canobbio: 0.75 shots on target a game over 24 games [WC form: 0.00/90 over 2 games (139 min), 25% weight
K. Serna Fluminense

Shots on target 1+

K. Serna: 0.53 shots on target a game over 32 games, away against a side conceding 4.5 a game
L. Acosta Fluminense

Shots on target 1+

L. Acosta: 0.50 shots on target a game over 28 games, away against a side conceding 4.5 a game

Projections from club-season form only. We never record or grade player markets. They sit outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.

Match stats

Projected from each side's real season averages, and priced by us rather than taken from a bookmaker. These sit outside the tracked record, so build your own bet from them.

Over 10.5 Match Corners 44%
Corners: Sao Paulo avg 6.0 for/5.3 against, Fluminense avg 5.3 for/3.8 against so expected 10.2 match corners
Over 7.5 Match Corners 79%
Corners: Sao Paulo avg 6.0 for/5.3 against, Fluminense avg 5.3 for/3.8 against so expected 10.2 match corners; the safer line
Over 4.5 Match Cards 50%
Cards: Sao Paulo avg 2.6/game, Fluminense avg 2.1/game so expected 4.7 match cards
Over 2.5 Match Cards 80%+
Cards: Sao Paulo avg 2.6/game, Fluminense avg 2.1/game so expected 4.7 match cards; the safer line
Over 24.5 Match Fouls 72%
Fouls: Sao Paulo avg 15.4/game, Fluminense avg 12.4/game so expected 27.7 match fouls
Over 20.5 Match Fouls 80%+
Fouls: Sao Paulo avg 15.4/game, Fluminense avg 12.4/game so expected 27.7 match fouls; the safer line
Over 26.5 Match Shots 64%
Shots: Sao Paulo avg 14.0/game, Fluminense avg 14.5/game so expected 28.5 match shots
Over 22.5 Match Shots 80%+
Shots: Sao Paulo avg 14.0/game, Fluminense avg 14.5/game so expected 28.5 match shots; the safer line

How this is built

The model prices every fixture before kick-off. This build is its strongest team-market legs for this game: the result, goals, both teams to score. The number beside a leg is the model's own chance; the price is the fair price at that chance. Player legs are information, never part of the record. This league is not on the record yet, so these legs are the model's read of the market, not a graded call.

The record The match page

The market's own prices

Bookmaker prices with the margin still in. These are the market's numbers, not the model's, and no record of ours stands behind them. A price at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Market singles

Under 3.5 goals 85% market Bet365
1.25 +
Sao Paulo under 2 goals 84% market Marathon Bet
1.19 +
Sao Paulo over 0.5 goals 81% market Bet365
1.28 +
Over 0.5 second half goals 78% market William Hill
1.30 +
Under 3 goals 78% market Betano
1.35 +
Sao Paulo or Draw (double chance) 77% market Bet365
1.33 +
Fluminense under 1.5 goals 77% market Bet365
1.30 +
Sao Paulo or Fluminense (double chance) 76% market Bet365
1.36 +
Under 1.5 first half goals 75% market William Hill
1.35 +
Over 0.5 first half goals 71% market Bet365
1.44 +
Fluminense over 0.5 goals 70% market Bet365
1.44 +

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Pro

The singles we'd pick ourselves, with the research and the price behind each one

The daily singles. Each one cleared three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. Usually 0 to 5 a day, one unit each.
The case for each, put together. The last 12 against what the price needs, who is missing, the head to head, and the best price at a UK bookmaker, in one place.
The desk's card on every fixture it covers. Its verdict, every market graded, and the reason written down. And tomorrow's singles the night before.

Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.

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18+. BeGambleAware.org. Analysis and opinion, not betting advice.