Real Sociedad crestLyon crest

Real Sociedad v Lyon bet builder

Thursday 5 November 2026, 17:45 · Europa League

A research tool, not a bookmaker, we build the picks, you place them with your own bookie. We don't take bets. 18+

The model's build

No record in this league yet, the market's prices only

  • Real Sociedad or draw

    76% the model

    Our board prices this at 76%, the same number shown on the homepage and previews. (API-Football's own model has it at 90%.)

    1.32 +

  • Over 2.5 Goals

    80%+ the model

    Goals: the sides' goal rates read 2.50 and 2.50, so Over 2.5 Goals at 80%+.

    1.14 +
Combined fair odds2 legs, 66% chance all land
1.51

Built from the bookmakers' prices for Real Sociedad v Lyon, 66% combined. Legs from one game move together, so read it as a guide.

Alternative picks

  • Under 4.5 Goals 76% 1.24 +
  • Under 3.5 Goals 58% 1.58 +
  • Lyon or Draw Double Chance 55% 1.85 +

More to build with

Extra markets · not tracked

Match stats

Projected from each side's real season averages, and priced by us rather than taken from a bookmaker. These sit outside the tracked record, so build your own bet from them.

  • Over 11.5 Match Corners 44%
    Corners: Real Sociedad avg 6.2 for/4.0 against, Lyon avg 5.8 for/6.3 against so expected 11.2 match corners
  • Over 8.5 Match Corners 78%
    Corners: Real Sociedad avg 6.2 for/4.0 against, Lyon avg 5.8 for/6.3 against so expected 11.2 match corners; the safer line
  • Over 3.5 Match Cards 48%
    Cards: Real Sociedad avg 2.3/game, Lyon avg 1.3/game so expected 3.6 match cards
  • Over 1.5 Match Cards 80%+
    Cards: Real Sociedad avg 2.3/game, Lyon avg 1.3/game so expected 3.6 match cards; the safer line
  • Over 22.5 Match Fouls 42%
    Fouls: Real Sociedad avg 12.0/game, Lyon avg 9.8/game so expected 21.8 match fouls
  • Over 18.5 Match Fouls 75%
    Fouls: Real Sociedad avg 12.0/game, Lyon avg 9.8/game so expected 21.8 match fouls; the safer line
  • Over 24.5 Match Shots 47%
    Shots: Real Sociedad avg 14.0/game, Lyon avg 10.2/game so expected 24.2 match shots
  • Over 20.5 Match Shots 77%
    Shots: Real Sociedad avg 14.0/game, Lyon avg 10.2/game so expected 24.2 match shots; the safer line

How this is built

The model prices every fixture before kick-off. This build is its strongest team-market legs for this game: the result, goals, both teams to score. The number beside a leg is the model's own chance; the price is the fair price at that chance. Player legs are information, never part of the record. This league is not on the record yet, so these legs are the model's read of the market, not a graded call.

The record The match page

The market's own prices

Bookmaker prices with the margin still in. These are the market's numbers, not the model's, and no record of ours stands behind them. A price at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Market singles

  • Real Sociedad or Lyon (double chance) 85% market William Hill
    1.29 +
  • Under 4.5 goals 85% market Bet365
    1.22 +
  • Over 2 goals 83% market 1xBet
    1.23 +
  • Real Sociedad over 1 goals 83% market 1xBet
    1.24 +
  • Real Sociedad or Draw (double chance) 82% market William Hill
    1.30 +
  • Over 0.5 first half goals 81% market Bet365
    1.28 +
  • Under 2.5 second half goals 80% market Bet365
    1.28 +
  • Lyon over 0.5 goals 79% market Bet365
    1.30 +
  • Under 2 first half goals 79% market Marathon Bet
    1.26 +
  • Over 1 second half goals 79% market Marathon Bet
    1.26 +
  • Real Sociedad under 2.5 goals 78% market Bet365
    1.33 +
  • Under 11 corners 72% market 1xBet
    1.38 +

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Pro

The singles we'd pick ourselves, with the research and the price behind each one

  • The daily singles. Each one cleared three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. Usually 0 to 5 a day, one unit each.
  • The case for each, put together. The last 12 against what the price needs, who is missing, the head to head, and the best price at a UK bookmaker, in one place.
  • The desk's card on every fixture it covers. Its verdict, every market graded, and the reason written down. And tomorrow's singles the night before.

Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.

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18+. BeGambleAware.org. Analysis and opinion, not betting advice.